The Virginia GOP has been struggling in recent years, losing the governor's mansion twice in a row, what was considered a safe U.S. Senate seat, the Virginia Senate and seats in the House of Delegates. Nominating Jim Gilmore, widely considered the worst modern governor, has the GOP digging deeper in the litter pile. What's that they say: When you find yourself in a ditch, quit digging. Guess Virginia Republicans haven't learned that yet. Cluck cluck.
Gilmore may do well among 6th District voters who, although gradually breaking away from the Republican mindset, still tilt right. Some of them far right. And we can expect a nasty campaign from the Gilmoron camp. Ana Gamonal, a spokeswoman, said he will come out swinging: "We are going to continue to hammer Mark Warner and smoke him out . . . ."
The convention also chose Jeff Frederick as party chair. A delegate, Frederick boasts few accomplishments other than being a right wing firebrand. Guess that was his appeal. The Virginia GOP continues to drift farther from the mainstream. Watch out flat earth wingnuts, you might fall off.
Mark Warner responded by releasing a new ad with a bipartisan and positive message:
Featured in the ad is Rockingham County Sheriff, Don Farley, who is an independent and strong supporter of Warner. Several other prominent Virginians speak up for Warner's common sense governance, including former GOP Senator John Chichester. What's the old joke: when Chichester retired, the average I.Q. among Republican Senators fell by half.
Maybe I'll lay an egg . . . squawk! . . . but here are early predictions from the hen house for this race:
- Jim Gilmore will engage in a nasty Rovian-style campaign. He'll get nastier as the election approaches. And nastier.
- Republicans will be divided and many understandably unenthusiastic.
- Mark Warner will run a positive and bipartisan campaign.
- Gilmore will carry the 6th District, but by a much smaller margin than Republicans have in recent elections.
- Gilmore will pull down the Goodlatte campaign. Bobby will be cordial, but keep his distance. Sam Rasoul should be very happy today.
- At the end of the day on November 4 the statewide totals will be: Mark Warner 57% and Jim Gilmore 43%. Maybe I'm being too conservative??