Courage and Common Sense

Jeff Price recently received the endorsement of the Rockbridge Advocate (subscription required), a news magazine that bills itself as "independent as a hog on ice."

In a thoughtful letter from the editor, the Advocate first turned its microscope on Ben Cline, who is running on his (non)record... for example, claiming credit for construction at the Horse Center and bringing a community college campus to Buena Vista. The Advocate ripped apart each of Cline's empty boasts and bluntly stated that Cline has no place to claim credit for those projects or for much else:

It's not unusual for politicians to claim credit for everything good that happens in their districts during their tenure. But Ben (Cline) really has remarkably little to show for his years in Richmond - other than picking up some tips on being a career politician.

And one tip that he's refined is to avoid saying anything that might possibly offend a voter, and dodge any question that can't be answered by saying something about government waste, apple pie, etc. etc.

Turning to Price, the Advocate praised him for straight answers to questions while Cline engaged in "soft-shoe song and dance." Price, who is actually a family man, who actually runs a small business, who actually grew up on a farm didn't pretend to know all the answers, but at a recent forum addressed questions on those and other topics directly. The Advocate endorsed Price over the empty shell Cline, concluding:

Jeff Price doesn't have an ideological agenda or any great political ambitions. He knows how to listen and work hard. He's got some courage and a whole lot of common sense. And that's just what we need in Richmond.

Expanding democracy in Virginia

It is long past time for Virginia to end the unreasonable disenfranchisement of felons who have served their time. The Jim Crow era law is one of the most punitive in the nation making restoration of a convicted felon's voting rights extremely difficult. Only Virginia and Kentucky permanently take voting rights from every individual convicted of a felony. Currently, over 300,000 are disenfranchised under Virginia law. Two states, Vermont and Maine, never take away voting rights. Thirty eight states currently restore voting rights to former felons on completion of jail time and parole or probation. Eight others restore voting rights to most felons, excluding only those who are convicted of the most heinous crimes.

Early on the morning of January 19, a subcommittee of the House Privileges and Elections committee will consider several constitutional amendments to modify Virginia law on restoration of voting rights. Three resolutions - HJ 623 (Dance), HJ 664 (Morrissey), and HJ 677 (BaCote) would restore voting rights to all former felons. Two others - HJ 628 (Ware) and HJ 656 (Tyler) would restore rights only to those convicted of nonviolent felonies. More info on the bills can be found on Richmond Sunlight.

Making Virginia law more fair and more democratic is an ongoing process. It is time to end permanent disenfranchisement. Convicted felons who have served their time and been punished for their crime should be encouraged, rather than discouraged, to become participating members of their community. It is good for them, good for our communities, and good for democracy.

Learn more about the current Virginia law and how you can help make our commonwealth more democratic. You'll have to act fast to contact members of the Constitutional Subcommittee before their meeting on Monday. The members, linked to their contact info, are:

• William Janis (Chair)
• Lacey Putney
• Frank Hargrove
• John Cosgrove
• Jeff Frederick
• Clarence Phillips
• Kenneth Alexander
• Joseph Morrissey

Where in the world is Chris?

Where's Chris? Chris Saxman, that is.

Delegate Saxman has been AWOL since his man, McCain, took a drubbing in Virginia last Tuesday. Not only did Virginia go Democratic for the first time since 1964 under his leadership, Saxman's hometown, Staunton turned blue.

Saxman was co-chair of McCain's campaign and had spent weeks discounting the polls and justifying the negative robo-calls that, in the end, may have done more harm than good. He'd dropped the hint that a job in a McCain administration sounded good and he was more than willing to give up his seat in the House of Delegates.

Out at the grist mill there is talk about Delegate Saxman not really being interested in representing this district, but sees it as a stepping stone. He floated his name as a potential candidate for U.S. Senate - that was mostly about getting play in the media and buzz among GOP activists. He's boxed in by Bolling running for Lt. Governor again - yep, Chris really wanted to run for that. With nowhere to go that met his ego, Chris hoped McCain would whisk him away to the nation's capitol.

There is also talk about Saxman being one of the least liked legislators by his colleagues in Richmond. Perhaps it is his self-righteous attitude. There's a hint of arrogance and an unwillingness to compromise. Perhaps that is why he isn't considered a very effective as a legislator.

Residents who journey to Richmond to be citizen-lobbyists report that when pressed on issues with which he disagrees, he is known to change the topic to something totally irrelevant or cut the meeting short - disrespecting his own constituents. He is right and his mind is set in stone, so why waste his valuable time in discussion?

So, as the parties eye the 2009 elections, the speculation that he'll have an opponent isn't too surprising. One name that surfaces is Bruce Elder who previously challenged Saxman and has built a resume on Staunton City Council. There is also talk, without a name as yet, of an individual from Bridgewater who is interested.

It appears Republicans will be challenged throughout their stronghold in the Shenandoah Valley. Jeff Price of Amherst Co. has already announced he'll challenge Ben Cline. And, most Democrats, seeing Valley cities turning blue, expect to nominate candidates to challenge Matt Lohr and Steve Landes as well.

Early prediction: although Democrats won't bump off all of these entrenched incumbents, their new-found strength in Virginia increases their odds of capturing control of the House of Delegates. Stay tuned.

Predictions

The national presidential popular vote (which doesn't matter except pride and in creating the "mandate") will be Obama 52%, McCain 47%, with 1% split between various minor party candidates. Those candidates aren't really important except in a handful of very close states where it is possible it could tip things. But, if the popular vote and the electoral vote fail to jive, like happened in 2000, it could really matter!

The Electoral Vote will be Barack Obama 319 and John McCain 219. Two states that I have in the Obama column might flip to McCain, Virginia (13) and Florida (27) bringing his total to 259, still 11 short of 270. On the other hand, Ohio (20) and North Carolina (15) could go for Obama, padding his lead. If the underlying trends are more powerful than the polls are detecting, Obama's electoral vote total may be as high as 353.

Virginia will go for Obama by a margin of 51% to 48%, delivering the state's 13 electoral votes to a Democrat for the first time since 1964. Obama will rack up huge margins in NOVA, Richmond City, Charlottesville, and in some parts of Hampton Roads. He'll also do better in many rural areas than did Kerry and Gore. The remaining 1% will be split between the minor party candidates, with Barr and Baldwin leading that bunch. Most of their votes come from McCain's hide.

The U.S. Senate race in Virginia is a done deal, the only surprise being how big is Mark Warner's win. Warner will carry every congressional district and all but a handful of deep red localities. Final result - Warner 64% (could be higher) and Gilmore 35% (or lower). End of Gilmore's political "misadventure." Possible beginning of a future president in Mark Warner.

What about the makeup of the U.S. Senate? Even if it is a so-so night for Democrats, they'll pick up seven seats in the U.S. Senate. If the wave really washes out incumbents, add two or three to that number. Can you say "FILIBUSTER PROOF." I don't think the Dems quite get that. My prediction is the new Senate will be 58-42... until they kick Lieberman out of the party. Then it is 57-42-1 or 57-43. 

In the House races in Virginia, Democrats will certainly pick up one seat in the 11th District. If voters are in an upset mood, Tom Perriello may knock off Virgil Goode... a very "good" thing. If there are very angry voters, maybe the Dems can pick up one other seat. In the 6th District, Bob Goodlatte will probably keep his seat. Sam Rasoul ran a good issues-oriented race, but Goodlatte's name recognition, PAC money, and flood of TV/radio ads over the final weeks will give him the victory.  My prediction is Goodlatte 55%, Rasoul 42%, and Allen 3%. As I predicted way back in April, other than her hometown, Allen is not a factor and her campaign a complete joke. There has been little polling on this race, so beyond the outcome, it almost impossible to predict percentages. I hope I am way off base and Rasoul pulls off an upset - he's smart, focused, and will represent the voters well... if he gets the chance.

Democrats will gain 28 seats in the House of Representatives. Again, if voters' anger is intense enough, the party of Thomas Jefferson and Andrew Jackson will pick up 35 to 40 seats.

New Bird in the 24th

Rumor in the corn mill is that Jeff Price of Amherst County is preparing to seek the Democratic Party nomination for the 24th District seat in the Virginia House of Delegates. The district includes all of Rockbridge County; the Cities of Buena Vista and Lexington; part of Amherst County comprised of the New Glasgow, Courthouse, Temperance, Monroe, Elon, Pleasant View, Amelon, and Madison Precincts; and part of Augusta County comprised of the Middlebrook, Spottswood, White Hill, and Sherando Precincts. The seat is currently held by Ben Cline. 

Price is director of marketing & sales at Virginia Lime Works, a family-owned business in Madison Heights, Virginia, specializing in lime mortars, cements, stucco, paints, and related products used in renovation and restoration of historic properties. Price's website is currently under development, but a link subscribes you to his email list.

Cline is part of the House GOP conservative bloc that obstructed solutions for Virginia's transportation problems in the recent special session. He usually votes the party line, even when contrary to the needs of his constituents.