Last week's other loser

Senator Emmett Hanger, I hope you are watching your back. Folks are already taking aim at your political life... and most likely they are your fellow Republicans. Democrats are still in a daze and aren't plotting that far ahead....

Senator Hanger represents the 24th Senate District that includes Augusta County, Greene County, Highland County, Lexington, Staunton, Waynesboro, plus parts of Albemarle County, Rockbridge County, and Rockingham County. You may recall that right wingers in the GOP worked hard to deny Hanger the party's nomination in 2007. They put up Scott Sayre who Hanger eventually defeated in the primary, but not until deep rifts between party factions were exposed.

Flash forward to the summer of 2009. At Staunton's July 4 parade Senator Hanger had his own float (actually a convertible) that was quite separate from the Republican float. Then later that month came Chris Saxman's surprise announcement that he was withdrawing from the 20th District House of Delegates race. Although there was a very public forum at Buffalo Gap High School, the local GOP chairs privately interviewed candidates and just as privately picked Staunton City Councilman Dickie Bell as their nominee. Bell easily won the election in November.

So, what does all this have to do with Senator Hanger? The bitter feelings from 2007 are still festering among local Republicans. Hanger, who is still popular with many in the GOP (and independent) electorate remains distrusted, even disliked, by his party's right wing. Reports indicate that the GOP chairs' interviews of potential candidates in the 20th District got not only into issues and electability, but also touched on their relationship and loyalty to the Senator. Anyone who was seen as too friendly to Hanger, or not tight enough with the conservative faction, had no chance of being the nominee. Equally important was picking a nominee acceptable to Delegate Saxman.

Looking forward to 2011, most observers assume Senator Hanger will seek renomination by the GOP and another term. But he faces considerable obstacles. Hanger, though he remains popular with many in the community, is largely estranged from the local Republican committees. Delegate Dickie Bell, who owes his nomination to those local chairs and to Chris Saxman will never be a Hanger ally and may well continue what some say was Saxman's behind-the-scenes sabotage of the Senator.

Speaking of Saxman, come January he is free to roam the political landscape. He says he will concentrate on "school choice" issues, but nobody buys that as his last waltz in politics. While some of the rumors swirling around his exit from the House race would, if true, likely end his career in electoral politics; the rumors of his future political aspirations have more credibility. Some say he may challenge Bob Goodlatte, but this bird wonders if his plans might be focused more on 2011.

Added to the toxic mix for Senator Hanger is the rise of the Tea Party activists and their appeal to right wing Republicans and the continuing local involvement of far right groups like the Club for Growth fighting healthcare reform. The nexus of a hostile party leadership and right wing grassroots politics spells danger for a mountain-valley Republican like Hanger. The Senator is well-advised to watch his back, to see who is following, to see who is gaining, to see who is taking aim. Might be a whole flock!

News of the day

In a shocking and sad story, Fred Hutchens, 26, an aide on the staff of Senator Jim Webb, was found along Rt. 220 near Fincastle, dead from a single gunshot to the head. Hutchens had been a rising star in Virginia Democratic politics. A Botetourt County deputy found him, with a pistol underneath, his body. The Roanoke Times has the story. 

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Linwood Holton's memoir has been released.

"He (Dumas Malone) said, 'Governor, be sure to write your memoirs. Otherwise, your perspective will never be known, that kept nudging me all through the years -- 'Holton, you've got to get this done.' "

Former Governor Linwood Holton, 84, has written his memoir of his life from coalfields to the statehouse. The father-in-law of current governor, Tim Kaine, made history with his 1969 election:

"My election as a Republican was, in itself, a culmination of efforts to create two-party democracy in Virginia, but little did I then realize what a wonderful panorama of opportunities would be presented during the next four years," Holton wrote of his 1969 election.

While Holton is credited with beginning the process of cleaning up the state's rivers and beginning the cabinet system in Virginia government, he believes his greatest contribution was setting the example and prodding Virginian to "turn its back on its discriminatory past and become a model of race relations." When the Holtons enrolled their children in a predominately black public school in Richmond, the photo of him walking his daughter to school made national news and set a powerful signal to all Virginians.

Holton was part of the old Mountain-Valley coalition of Republicans who were far more moderate and forward thinking than the conservative Byrd Democrats who controlled Virginia politics for decades. Holton, and others of the M-V coalition like John Dalton, moved the state into the future of race relations, environmental protection, and moving K-12 and higher education to new levels. But, on a fundamental level, Holton's election signaled the beginning of robust two-party competition. 

Somewhere along the way, things changed. While there are still conservative Democrats, the old segregationists and others living the past slowly found that party a hostile environment. Today's Virginia Democrats are a mixture of can-do centrists like Mark Warner and Jim Webb, moderate/conservatives, and progressives.

While there are still a few Republicans of the M-V mold (Emmett Hanger comes to mind), that party has been captured by the rigid, right wing, social and religious conservatives. A mixture of both groups enabled the GOP to capture the General Assembly and elect governors like George Allen and Jim Gilmore. But today, with the right wing in control the old M-V guys are aliens in their own party.

The fracturing of the GOP, while Democrats have united around forward looking centrists, has shifted the state's political dynamic since 2000. The election of Mark Warner and Tim Kaine and governors, Jim Webb as U.S. Senator, and Democrats re-gaining control of the Virginia Senate signal the new rise of the Democratic brand in the commonwealth.

Because of this groundswell for Democrats, while the Republican continue to retreat into a far-right, do-nothing corner, Virginia is seriously in play for Barack Obama and will likely go for the Democratic candidate for the first time since 1964. Virginia will also be represented by a second Democratic senator, Mark Warner, which hasn't been the case since the early 70s. You can expect the Democrats to pick up a couple House seats as well.

The legacy of Linwood Holton lives on - today it is found in the Democratic Party.