How Terry McAuliffe almost blew it

Terry McAuliffe will be the next governor of Virginia but he almost let a sure thing slip away during the last couple of weeks. In doing do, he likely hurt both his statewide running mates, especially attorney general candidate Mark Herring who will have a fight to survive a recount. What are some of the factors that cut what looked like a comfortable 6-8% margin of victory down to about 2.5%? And what can Democrats learn from a near collapse that, if the election were held a week later, could have turned the Commonwealth into a bitter tea party? My foggy brained analysis after counting and recounting absentee votes until after 2:00 a.m on Wed morning:

• Terry McAuliffe was never able to shake the label of "outsider" or "carpetbagger" and by bringing in Bill Clinton for a statewide tour he reinforced that image among independents and energized Republicans. I'm all in favor of bringing in political heavyweights to fire up the base, but beware of unintended consequences in a campaign's closing days.
• With the right wing media bashing, and the mainstream media questioning, the rollout of ObamaCare, was it the right thing to bring the president and vice president to the state for campaign appearances? I think not. All that did was, in the minds of some voters, to tie McAuliffe to questions about the competency of government and to link him more with Washington than Richmond. Again, McAuliffe's campaign brought more Republicans out to vote and got many independents questioning him just as it was time to cast votes.
• Terry McAuliffe we hardly know you! At some point voters want to make a personal connection that establishes trust. Negative campaigns tarnish everybody - voters need at least a few positive reasons to support a candidate rather than simply voting against the other guy. Beyond the Democratic diehards, McAuliffe never succeeded in building that relationship. Perhaps McAuliffe should have taken a page from the Obenshain playbook and given his family a greater role in explaining Terry "the father and the man" to voters.
• I never thought a minor party candidate would garner double digits like some pre-election polls indicated. I wondered if, come election day and crunch time in the voting booth, more than 5-6% of the voters would decide to "send a message" or "waste a vote." Sarvis, with few resources or recognition, ran a pretty good campaign and aired some compelling TV ads but in the end about half of his "support" drained away, with most going to Cuccinelli.

Virginia was lucky to dodge the disaster that a Governor Cuccinelli would have inflicted on this fine Commonwealth. Now Governor Terry McAuliffe needs to build and mend the bridges that he failed to build and mend in the campaign.

Oh, I've got that day after the election "what if" hangover.  ~Bill Bolling

Gov. McDonnell's final service to Virginia - Resign!

With federal prosecutors closing in on Governor Bob McDonnell's corruption, the Commonwealth is left leaderless with an impotent chief executive until a new governor is sworn in early next year. The best thing that Bob McDonnell can do for Virginia, and for himself, is to resign.

Governor McDonnell flanked by
Lt. Governor Bolling - who is clean in this scandal -
and Attorney General Cuccinelli - who isn't.

The Washington Post reports that Jonnie Williams Sr, the chief executive of Star Scientific, has been interviewed by prosecutors and has turned over financial records detailing the more than $120,000 in gifts given to McDonnell and his family. Other company officials are also being interviewed.

McDonnell could be charged with corruption under the Hobbs Act that prohibits elected officials from taking official actions in return for money or gifts. The Supreme Court has held that a violation of the law occurs when "... a public official has obtained a payment to which he was not entitled, knowing that the payment was made in return for official acts."

Even if McDonnell is not charged, his tenure as chief executive is basically done - his political goose is cooked. He can stay in office while bringing more disgrace to Virginia as government stumbles along to the end of his term. Or, he can resign, free the Commonwealth of six months of purgatory, and allow Lt. Governor Bill Bolling to take over the Executive Mansion. True, Bolling would be little more than a caretaker, but that is preferable to months of a state government mired in scandal and controversy that destroys faith in our representative democracy.

Perhaps we can thank Governor McDonnell for bringing attention to Virginia's lax ethic laws that earned a big fat "F" from the Center for Public Integrity for being "...one of nine states with no statewide ethics commission, one of four states with no campaign finance limits and one of only two states (South Carolina is the other) where the part-time legislators handpick the judges before whom many of them practice law." Smells like rotten eggs.

The cooked goose of a governor says he'll propose changes to the Commonwealth's ethics laws - kinda like a fox with a bloody chicken in his jaws promising to fix the lock on the henhouse door. It would be far preferable for someone removed from this scandal - perhaps an interim Governor Bill Bolling - to lead a sweeping ethics reform movement and have proposed legislation ready for the 2014 session of the General Assembly. If the elite 140 (who also get lavished by nice gifts that are legal - but not moral or ethical IMHO) under state law drop the ball on ethics reform shame on them - and us - for failing to raise our Commonwealth to a higher standard.

Prior posts on corruption and the lack of enforceable ethics laws in Virginia:

• Carlos Danger meets Robbin' Hood
• Governor McDonnell is more than an embarrassment, he's breaking the law
• Corruption at the intersection of money and politics in Virginia
• Virginia Gets a F in State Integrity Grades
• Judging judges
• Pitchfork Rebellion

History repeats itself

Changing demographics has the Republican Party scrambling to hold on to power in the states and to regain a chance to win the presidency (even if they don't win the popular vote). But, instead of putting forth new ideas with broad appeal Republicans across the nation are pushing various schemes to rig election rules in their favor. If this sounds like trying to deny the will of the people, you are absolutely right. If it sounds like something new in American politics, you are dead wrong.

Voter ID laws designed to limit citizen participation have been and are still being proposed in state after state including the commonwealth. Not satisfied with gerrymandering just every ten years, the GOP members of the Virginia Senate are pushing a ultra-partisan redistricting plan they hope will pump up the number of Republican leaning districts giving them an electoral advantage. And across the country, but most especially in "presidential blue states" where Republicans control the legislatures, they are advocating for changes in how electors are chosen.

When parties fall out of step with the will of people, desperation sets in as politicians try to hold on to power. As is happening today with Republicans, it also happened in the late 1790s and early 1800s as Federalists felt power slipping through their fingers. James Madison words to Thomas Jefferson about Federalists could just as well be written about today's GOP: "The horrors which they evidently feel at the approach of the electoral epoch are a sufficient warning of the desperate game by which they will be apt to characterize the interval."

Jefferson was fully aware of the Federalist's strategy, writing to his daughter, Patsy: "Our opponents perceive the decay of their power. Still they are pressing it, and trying to pass laws to keep themselves in power."

The influential New York Federalist, Alexander Hamilton, devised a plan to get Governor John Jay to change election laws to deny the will of the people in the selection of presidential electors. Hamilton implored Jay: "In times like this in which we live, it will not do to be over-scrupulous."

Flashing forward to today's Republican acts of desperation, it at least fair to point out that some in the party are urging a focus on issues of the American people rather than a strategy of rigging the political game. Even Governor Bob McDonnell and Lt. Governor Bill Bolling are urging the Senate to back off on the redistricting. Perhaps they hear the echo of John Jay's words in response to Hamilton's ploy: "Proposing a measure for party purposes, which I think it would not become me to adopt." Or perhaps they are recalling the fate of the Federalist Party which, although it left a lasting imprint on the young nation, was nearly extinct by the 1820s.

Bill Bolling is full of... it.

Lt. Governor No Show

What has Bill Bolling done as Lt. Governor? You decide.