Predictions

The national presidential popular vote (which doesn't matter except pride and in creating the "mandate") will be Obama 52%, McCain 47%, with 1% split between various minor party candidates. Those candidates aren't really important except in a handful of very close states where it is possible it could tip things. But, if the popular vote and the electoral vote fail to jive, like happened in 2000, it could really matter!

The Electoral Vote will be Barack Obama 319 and John McCain 219. Two states that I have in the Obama column might flip to McCain, Virginia (13) and Florida (27) bringing his total to 259, still 11 short of 270. On the other hand, Ohio (20) and North Carolina (15) could go for Obama, padding his lead. If the underlying trends are more powerful than the polls are detecting, Obama's electoral vote total may be as high as 353.

Virginia will go for Obama by a margin of 51% to 48%, delivering the state's 13 electoral votes to a Democrat for the first time since 1964. Obama will rack up huge margins in NOVA, Richmond City, Charlottesville, and in some parts of Hampton Roads. He'll also do better in many rural areas than did Kerry and Gore. The remaining 1% will be split between the minor party candidates, with Barr and Baldwin leading that bunch. Most of their votes come from McCain's hide.

The U.S. Senate race in Virginia is a done deal, the only surprise being how big is Mark Warner's win. Warner will carry every congressional district and all but a handful of deep red localities. Final result - Warner 64% (could be higher) and Gilmore 35% (or lower). End of Gilmore's political "misadventure." Possible beginning of a future president in Mark Warner.

What about the makeup of the U.S. Senate? Even if it is a so-so night for Democrats, they'll pick up seven seats in the U.S. Senate. If the wave really washes out incumbents, add two or three to that number. Can you say "FILIBUSTER PROOF." I don't think the Dems quite get that. My prediction is the new Senate will be 58-42... until they kick Lieberman out of the party. Then it is 57-42-1 or 57-43. 

In the House races in Virginia, Democrats will certainly pick up one seat in the 11th District. If voters are in an upset mood, Tom Perriello may knock off Virgil Goode... a very "good" thing. If there are very angry voters, maybe the Dems can pick up one other seat. In the 6th District, Bob Goodlatte will probably keep his seat. Sam Rasoul ran a good issues-oriented race, but Goodlatte's name recognition, PAC money, and flood of TV/radio ads over the final weeks will give him the victory.  My prediction is Goodlatte 55%, Rasoul 42%, and Allen 3%. As I predicted way back in April, other than her hometown, Allen is not a factor and her campaign a complete joke. There has been little polling on this race, so beyond the outcome, it almost impossible to predict percentages. I hope I am way off base and Rasoul pulls off an upset - he's smart, focused, and will represent the voters well... if he gets the chance.

Democrats will gain 28 seats in the House of Representatives. Again, if voters' anger is intense enough, the party of Thomas Jefferson and Andrew Jackson will pick up 35 to 40 seats.

Trick or Treat?

HAPPY HALLOWEEN

For every piece of sweet candy there is something sour. For every beautiful princess there is a scary witch. For every treat there is a nasty trick.

Treat #1

On top of receiving endorsements from The Roanoke Times and The News Leader, Sam Rasoul also raised over $100K through online donations. I'm proud that a few of those dollars, about .001% as it turns out, came from me. I'm also proud to have done some volunteering on his behalf. It is a remarkable achievement for a candidate in western Virginia. Sam's fundraising success is an especially sweet treat because he, unlike his opponent, refused contributions from PACs, lobbyists, and even from the party which nominated him. It is truly a grassroots campaign.

Trick #1

Bob Goodlatte is running an aggressive TV ad campaign. He would not be spending all that money, all across the district, if he didn't feel threatened. There has been little reliable public polling done in this race, but one has to believe Goodlatte's internal polling is telling him something. The ad I've seen most often makes it appear to be "plain folks" are supporting Bob - in reality the people are local GOP activists like Bill Shirley, the Augusta chair. Is that the guy who got it by default after the Michael/Roller bloodletting? Where's Kurt?

Treat #2

Students at Spotswood High School in Rockingham County went narrowly (112-107) for Barack Obama. Student mock elections don't always predict the percentages of how the general population will vote, but they can illustrate some general trends. In this case, it may well reflect that Obama is faring better in this area than the previous two Democratic presidential nominees. Kerry and Gore both got less than 25% in Rockingham.

Trick #2

True to form, the Daily News-Record's story on the Spotswood Mock Election tricked readers by mostly quoted students supporting McCain who questioned the motives (and intelligence) of their classmates.

Treat #3

Nationwide, Barack Obama defeated John McCain 60% to 35.5% in the Youth Leadership Mock Election that is organized by the Center for Politics at UVA. About 3 million students participated in in this nationwide election. In Virginia, it was very similar with Obama winning 59.72% and McCain 35.56%.

Trick #3

About 5% of the students' votes in the Youth Leadership Mock Election went to various minor party candidates and probably to Homer Simpson and Mickey Mouse. So one can wonder how seriously some students took this instructional activity. On November 4 these candidates will probably get 1% or less. But, I've recently spotted Ron Paul and Chuck Baldwin signs in a very Republican area - does this signal conservatives' unease with McCain/Palin?

Treat #4

Chris Saxman says he'd give up his seat in the House of Delegates to serve in a McCain administration.

Trick #4

John McCain would be president. Trick #4.1 Sarah Palin would be vice president.

Now that's some scary stuff for Halloween!

Chicken litter

We're 10 days out on the election and both teams seems to pulling out all the stops. A random selection:

The Daily News-Republican endorsed Bob Goodlatte and took a swipe at Sam Rasoul. No surprise in either. Their endorsement could have been predicted a year ago, even a decade ago because the facts and the campaign don't really matter to the editors there. Well, maybe I'll have to eat a little (very little) crow after we find out their views on the Senate race.

Speaking of the DN-R, their letters to the editor frequently are a rehash of libelous BS, many so obvious in their intent and apparent in their stupidity that I think they actually hurt their cause. Then the editors place certain letters in shaded boxes (print edition) or designate it "letter of the day" to, I assume, give them eye appeal and seem more important. Is it just my imagination that this favored treatment is more often given to Obama-bashing letters?

The News Leader has a story about hateful and racist literature showing up in newspaper tubes in the Staunton and Waynesboro areas. Staunton Democratic chair Bob Dickerman referred to the flyers and negative robocalls as "atrocious." On the other hand, Staunton Republican chair Anne Taetzsch denied knowledge of the literature and said it didn't come from the campaign. She said, "my whole thing is the negative approach doesn't work." What? How can she say that with a straight face? After all she's in tight with Chris Saxman the Virginia McCain co-chair whose campaign has used robocalls and mailers spewing the same negative and false information. And isn't Ms. Taetzsch a big supporter of state GOP chair Jeff Frederick, whose racist comments went too far for even the McCain campaign?

On another and more positive front, former Delegate Jim Dillard, a Fairfax Republican, is making calls for Barack Obama. He does get in a jab at McCain/Palin for their negative campaign and lies, but his message is overwhelmingly one of positive support for Obama/Biden. While there has been a lot of news about national Republican figures supporting Obama, there is a groundswell of Republican support among state and local politicians as well.

And the latest counter punch in the sign wars is "You can vote for the chick, but I'm rollin' with Colin." Haven't seen one yet, but understand a few have appeared around Staunton.

Jeff Frederick is a jerk - part 4

Another newspaper has criticized the inept chairman of the VA GOP, Jeff Frederick. Most recently, the Fredericksburg Free Lance Star unloaded with this barrage:

Many young conservatives, especially, strive to prove manhood through their mouths. So here's a thought for Master Jeffrey if he wants to take it to the real, flesh-and-blood terrorists: Join the military. He's still age-eligible for the Army and Navy. Not only could the fierce-talking Mr. Frederick give al-Qaida what-for, but his absence would leave a GOP chairmanship vacancy that might be filled by a thoughtful grown-up. In which case: Democratic Secret Agent Limbaugh, foiled again!

Although the McCain campaign sought to distance itself from the flame throwing Frederick, John McCain himself refused to do so when given the chance. Now, struggling in vain to hold on to a state that has voted Republican in presidential elections since 1964, McCain will join the unrepentant Frederick at a Fairfax rally. 

Can you spell   G U I L T   B Y   A S S O C I A T I O N  ?

The conservatives' choice

Shenandoah Valley conservatives are caught in a tight spot. They instinctively know that John McCain does not represent them or their views. They do not trust John McCain whose "maverick" reputation means to them he'll be kissing up to conservatives one day and stabbing them in the back the next. Sarah Palin energized the most conservative folks in the GOP during the weeks following the convention, but as her lack of qualifications and knowledge have been exposed, her ethical lapse documented, and the realization that she'd be a heartbeat away sunk in Palin has paled. She is now a drag on the McCain campaign.

For conservatives there are better and more principled choices for president who have qualified for the Virginia ballot.

Yesterday Bob Barr, the nominee of the Libertarian Party, campaigned in Virginia with stops at Liberty University and a meet-and-greet at Corned Beef and Company in Roanoke. At the Roanoke event, one Barr supporter summed up his vote this way:

"Both parties have lost it, what our forefathers intended for us to become," he said. "I believe in this movement. I am done voting for the lesser of two evils."

Others talked of Barr's strong libertarian ideas on the economy, health care, and welfare. Many in the crowd expressed a fear that McCain would pose the greatest threat to civil liberties.

Another candidate who should appeal to social and Christian conservatives is Chuck Baldwin. Mr. Baldwin, a minister, is the nominee of the Constitution Party, but is on the Virginia ballot under the banner of the Independent Green Party since the Constitution Party failed to get enough signatures. Baldwin is anti-abortion, supports school prayer, and believes Social Security is unconstitutional welfare. A few Baldwin signs have been popping up in the Shenandoah Valley, probably distributed through churches aligned with his beliefs.

If you are a principled conservative, there are other voting options for you on November 4. Candidates that speak to your concerns and issues. Candidates who, unlike John McCain, can be trusted to live up to their campaign promises.

Chicken Feed: Candidate Fundraising

The Daily News-Record reports that donations to John McCain and Barack Obama are running pretty close in zip codes beginning with 228 - Harrisonburg, much of Rockingham, a little of Augusta, and parts of Shenandoah and Page. According to the article, McCain raised $39,520 and Obama $36,166 through August from donors in those zips. To put it another way, that is about 52% for McCain and 48% for Obama.

Seems to me this is great news for the Democrats in general and Obama specifically. The area covered by those zips is bright red Republican. Some of the reddest in the Commonwealth. At least in past national elections when GOP candidates could count on 60% to 70% of the donations. Or more. Could all that be changing?

Now, I know that dollars don't vote, but dollars give campaigns the ability to influence the vote. Dollars open campaign headquarters and pay for phone banks. Dollars indicate a level of enthusiasm. A donor talks to friends and family. A donor wins other votes.

It was interesting that a doctor who donated to McCain only did so because he is infatuated with Palin and her anti-choice stand (Gobble... didn't she say she made the "choice" to have this last child? A choice she'd quickly deny other women.). Wonder what he'll do if McCain dumps her from the ticket, as many conservatives are now urging? He didn't seem too enthused about McCain - will he want his $2,300 back?

Valley Republicans have to be concerned about recent trends. They've been squabbling among themselves with bitter divides between the conservative and flat earth groups. The fundraising advantage that they once enjoyed is shrinking. The rapidly disappearing big edge they had in volunteers and enthusiasm. The fact that Democrats don't seem to be intimidated any longer by Republican taunts, bullying, and theft of campaign signs. Yeah, they still have the local newspapers, especially the News-Record, to sound the call for them. But, there is increasing parity between the parties in the Valley - a good ingredient for a robust democracy.

It is amazing what 8 years of incompetence does to a political party. Simply amazing.

Federal candidates have limits on contributions and many other rules they must follow. In Virginia there are few limits other than disclosure. If you want to check federal or state campaign contributions in your area, or contributions from specific industries or interest groups, you might check these sources:

• Federal Election Commission
• Open Secrets
• Virginia Public Access Project

What's your coop like?

So, which presidential candidate is most like Shenandoah Valley voters. Me, myself, and I.... let's see: three vehicles for two people (splurge), but only one house (nice but less than half the value of McCain's cheapest). Does a paper plane count? It is fuel efficient!

It is always interesting listening to Republicans charging that Democrats are elite. It certainly isn't true here in the Valley. Actually the opposite is true. It isn't true of the 2008 presidential candidates either. While the GOP went bonkers over a recent big Hollywood fundraiser for Barack Obama, John McCain is no stranger to Hollywood and raises plenty of money there, too. According to an interview I heard with former (he can't stand the lies and Palin) McCain friend and supporter, Andrew Sullivan, there is no bigger D.C. celebrity hound than John McCain. If there is a party with a sports, or TV, or movie celebrity, John and Cindy McCain will be among the first panting at the door. 

Barack and Michelle Obama have a very nice home and one car. They share space in my paper plane.

Ya know, although Obama is black (well, half black and half white), he and I have far more in common than do John McCain and I. We were both raised in modest circumstances and had to work our way up (he climbed way higher than me). Actually, he probably had a tougher start - at least I had two parents raising me. We've each been married to the same woman (well different women for each of us) for many years. We both live in middle (me) or upper middle (him) class circumstances and share those middle American hopes, dreams, and values.

On the other hand, John McCain is what, in the top 1 to 2% of wealth in the country? Owns more cars and homes than all but the privileged few. Married into to the big money (I am jealous of that) after kind of dumping on his first wife. John McCain and I have little in common. He has almost nothing in common with most folks in the Shenandoah Valley. Not money. Not lifestyle. Not values.

So, how come so many think John McCain is just like them? It is all a carefully crafted image that is a big fat lie. It is all chicken sh*t. Maybe someday voters will look beyond the hype. Maybe?

How Green Is My Valley?

Anne Nielson of the Climate Action Alliance of the Valley writes a thoughtful column, Judge Candidates' Environmental Stances, in today's Daily News-Record. If environmental issues matter to you (shouldn't they matter to all of us?) Ms. Nielson's observations deserve our attention. A few tidbits:

• John McCain formerly supported attempts to cap greenhouse emissions and believes climate change is caused by human activity, but he hasn't mentioned it since winning the nomination (right shift?). However, his running mate said, "...a changing environment will affect Alaska more than any other, I'm not one who would attribute it to being man-made."
• Jim Gilmore's stance on climate change is unknown, he doesn't talk about it.
• Barack Obama and Mark Warner support cap-and-trade proposals to limit carbon emissions. In 1986 Joe Biden offered the first bill to limit global warming pollutants.
• Sam Rasoul "calls on Americans to rally to a national effort to meet ... environmental, security, and employment problems."
• Bob Goodlatte supported an amendment to K-12 curriculum include "diversity of scientific viewpoints" on human impact on climate change and encourages more coal-fired power plants.
• Janice Lee Allen's views are unknown except for a vague statement on her website about "creation of a universal organization to monitor pollutants."

There are differences, very real differences, between the candidates. Read Nielson's commentary for more info. Research the candidates' positions. This fowl doesn't want our chicks' futures to be foul. Vote Green.

Ballot Birds

The Virginia ballot for President and Vice President will be as follows:

• Democratic Party - Barack Obama and Joe Biden
• Republican Party - John McCain and Sarah Palin
• Independent Green Party - Chuck Baldwin and Darrell Castle
• Libertarian Party - Bob Barr and Wayne Root
• Green Party - Cynthia McKinney and Rosa Clemente
• Independent - Ralph Nader and Matt Gonzalez

Looks like the guy at the fair seeking signatures for the Constitution Party didn't have much success.

What will the impact of the minor party candidates be on the race in battleground Virginia? Only two tickets, led by Bob Barr and Ralph Nader, enjoy the name recognition and some resources to have any impact. The others might as well not even be on the ballot - cumulatively they'll be lucky to get 1/2% of the vote. 

Ralph Nader is well known and does have a following. He may appeal to some progressive Democrats, but the sense seems to be that most of his former supporters wish he'd just go away. He's been there, done that and sounds like a tired old war horse who is best left out to pasture. Nader will be lucky to get 1%.

On the other hand, Bob Barr has some appeal to the same Republicans who supported Ron Paul in the primaries - an outspoken group who were willing to put their money where their mouth is. As McCain flop flops on issues, some libertarian leaning conservative Republicans will find him totally unacceptable. Barr will have some appeal because he's new on the presidential scene, has media savvy, and because he's outspoken and takes controversial stands. Barr gets a fair amount of publicity for a minor party candidate. It is possible Barr will get 3-4% of the popular vote, all out of McCain's weathered hide. In a tight race, that could make all the difference and help turn Virginia Blue.

In the U.S. Senate race the Virginia ballot will be:

• Democrat - Mark Warner
• Republican - Jim Gilmore
• Independent Green - Gail Parker
• Libertarian - William Redpath

The two minor party candidate will have almost zero impact and one may wonder why they are even on the ballot. Of course, the same can probably be said about Gilmore.

VeepStakes, part one

Barack Obama's selection of Senator Joe Biden as his VP running-mate has many Republicans, even here in the Old Dominion, concerned. Biden has a solid reputation as a straight shooting working class Democrat who will appeal to a broad swath of middle class Americans. Many former Hillary supporters will rally to Biden joining the ticket. His long experience in the Senate and reputation as "big thinker" on foreign and military policy will strengthen the ticket nationally and be a valuable asset in the Obama administration. Like a great president from Illinois, Obama is comfortable with and wants a team of rivals in his inner circle. One last point - Biden sought the presidency, but his age suggests he probably wouldn't run in eight years. Hillary Clinton and her supporters will recognize that her opportunity awaits. I predict that, with his working class roots, his Pennsylvania heritage, and his Catholic upbringing will make Biden a very attractive choice for many Americans. Biden is an excellent choice and one the CCC previously predicted.

As the speculation centered on Joe Biden on the Democratic ticket, Bob Goodlatte was practically begging John McCain to choose a conservative. Goodlatte is smart enough to know that his base in the 6th District is conservative. And those conservatives don't like or trust John McCain. Unless McCain picks someone who will energize this base, many will sit out the election - they won't donate, they won't help, and many won't vote. Locked in his first competitive race in years, Goodlatte is understandably worried. After all, he's holding his nose while running with Jim Gilmore. If the national ticket fails to inspire, Mr. Goodlatte will be hanging out there all alone.

Goodlatte seems especially concerned that McCain will try to pick someone like Joe Lieberman who has been at his side, correcting McCain's numerous misstatements on Iraq and terrorism. Lieberman is a former Democrat, is pro-choice, and seen by many right wingers as a "liberal" on social issues. Another potential choice, Tom Ridge of Pennsylvania, might be an attempt to off-set Biden's appeal in that state, but he is also pro-choice. Mitt Romney - will born-again Christians vote for a Mormon? Those I know find him a total turn-off. Many conservatives in the 6th might prefer a Mike Huckabee type of candidate. While that might help Bob, it would sink McCain in state after state. Seems there are no good choices for McCain - if he goes right to help right wingers like Bob, he alienates the moderates and independents he needs to have a prayer of winning. If he opts for a moderate, the wingnuts sit out '08.

I might be crowing about my prediction of Biden joining the Obama ticket, but I don't feel nearly so cocky about predicting McCain's choice. There aren't any good ones. McCain is unpredictable. I don't think like a Republican. Thank God. My early guess is that he doesn't pick anyone I've named above - he's gotta roll the dice. I do know McCain doesn't care one bit what will help right wingers like Goodlatte - his "maverick" reputation is mostly earned by stomping on the toes of his own party.

Pop Corn

High school football kicks off the 2008 season with a few games tonight. Next week there will be a full schedule of high school games and many colleges will open their seasons. One sign of the impending end of summer.

Barack Obama's visit to Virginia continued for a second day with a stop in Chesterfield County where he was joined by Governor Tim Kaine - which reignited the speculation that Kaine would be Obama's running mate. But in comments to the press, Kaine sounded like he was off the list. He's leaving Friday night for Denver - we'll be watching the radar to see if the plane makes an emergency landing in Springfield!

I only own one house and feel pretty fortunate to have that. My guess is most Virginians are similar. But John McCain has what.... nine houses? Don't ask him, he lost count. Yet, he's a regular guy, one of us. Really? McCain worked hard for what he's gotten. What? Cluck, cluck . . . you say he married it and got free beer to boot.

President Bush has a ranch where he cuts brush and hides from the press. He likes his ranch (also Dad's place in Maine) so much that he's on pace to vacation nearly 500 days during his two terms, passing the former vacationer-in-chief Ronald Reagan who could only manage 436 days off. So John McCain, who has nine houses on seven properties, doesen't have any problem finding a comfortable vacation spot to kick back, take an afternoon nap, and sip a Bud or two. Sounds like he doesn't need 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue!