Closing the gap

Creigh Deeds is 12 points behind Bob McDonnell. Oh, that's really old news.

Creigh Deeds is 9% behind Bob McDonnell. Well, that's a couple months ago.

Creigh Deeds is 5% behind Bob McDonnell. Last week.

Creigh Deeds is 2% behind (well within the ±4.5% MoE of the Rasmussen poll). Today.

Slick Bob McD must be crapping in his britches as his past, his right wing views, and his questionable friends catch up with him. How fast can Bob run from who he is?

Creigh Deeds has been and will again be the comeback kid. Hope you have a backup plan for gainful employment, Taliban Bob.

Primary lessons

Academics, pundits, bloggers, and everybody's brother will be analyzing Virginia's gubernatorial primary for the lessons of June 9. So, I may as well throw out a little cracked corn myself.

Money can't buy ya love. Terry McAuliffe had plenty of it. Brian Moran raised a bunch, too. Creigh told me way back in January, when McAuliffe jumped in, that now money would be less of a factor for him. Creigh predicted that McAuliffe and Moran would use their money mostly against each other, saying, "I'll have enough to get my message out and that's all I need...." McAuliffe's money raising prowess got him in the game, but in the end I think it hurt more than helped - Virginia Democrats didn't like the notion that big out-of-state money could buy the nomination.

Ya gotta stand for something. With his long record of service to the Commonwealth, Democrats knew where Creigh was coming from and where he wants to go. We got the sense that with Creigh was all about Virginia's future. With McAuliffe the message was more muddled - there was always the suspicion it was more about Terry's future and the Governor's Mansion was a stepping stone to somewhere else.

Sometimes endorsements matter. I generally don't think newspaper endorsements move that many voters. But, the Washington Post's endorsement of Deeds seems to have been a turning point in this race. NOVA voters, who are often more focused on D.C. than on Richmond, have an interesting connection with the Post - many seem to rely on it for good advice on what's happening down state. The endorsement, back by solid reasoning, explained Deeds to them terms that made it clear he wasn't some hillbilly from the backwoods and why he was the best choice for Fairfax, et al. As the news about the Post's endorsement rippled across the state, it reinforced every part of Deeds' message.

Its the Old Dominion, after all. Steeped in political tradition, there is a Virginia way of doing things. It is virtually impossible to imagine someone moving to the Commonwealth just to run for statewide office. That may fly for New York, but not here. Yes, I know McAuliffe has a home in Virginia, but until he showed interest in running for Governor, nobody except his next door neighbor knew that. I guess that old bumper sticker about Virginia not being just a place but a state of mind, sort of sums it up. McAuliffe never sold us on being a Virginian. Creigh's Virginia roots, nourished in Bath County and honed in Charlottesville, run deeper than either of his opponents.

Sound and fury vs slow and steady. Creigh has been in Virginia public life for two decades. He's steadily moved from local office to the House of Delegates and the Senate of Virginia. Not flashy, but constant progress on issues, on finding solutions, on serving constituents. McAuliffe entered the race with all kind of flash - I recall one blogger/online news writing something like "...when did I know I'd support Terry McAuliffe? From the moment he walked into the room...." I'll admit McAuliffe can work a crowd and capture the attention of a room - I've seen it firsthand and he is impressive. Most, but not all, Virginia Democrats got over the initial infatuation and came back to Creigh, who they knew and trusted.

Virginia Democrats like hard work. All three candidates are hard working guys, but I think Creigh helped himself by keeping his seat in the Virginia Senate. Yes, he gave up two months of fundraising, but staying in the legislature reinforced his reputation of being a guy who works hard for constituents and the state - traits we want in the governor. Hey, didn't right wing Bob resign as attorney general??

Virginia Democrats like winning. The last few years have been like the wonder years for Virginia Democrats. Winning is so much more fun than losing. And the government works better too. As June 9 approached many Democrats asked the question - who can win in November? Most answered Creigh Deeds - he'd have the best chance to unite the party after a primary battle and, come November, he'd pull in independents and perhaps some moderate Republicans turned off by right wing Bob. Moran never made that sale. McAuliffe, with the Clinton connection, was his own negative advertising on this one.

Deeds river runs wide and deep. Creigh's victory is impressive not just because of his 50% win over two well-known and well-funded opponents, it is astonishing that he won every congressional district except the 3rd (Richmond through parts of Hampton Roads) where McAuliffe beat him by 2%. His biggest percentage was in his own 6th District (70%) but he did very well in many others, often besting his nearest opponent by double digits. Creigh won big where expected, but also beat Moran and McAuliffe on their home turf.

What primary? With statewide turnout of 319,000 or about 6.3% (best was 11.7% in the 8th District), it is clear that the idea of a primary hasn't quite caught on in the Old Dominion. Just not part of our tradition - yet. That's too bad, because it is clearly the more democratic process. But, 2009 is better turnout than the June 2005 primary that was a dual primary - the GOP had a primary for governor and attorney general while the Dems had one for lieutenant governor (there were also House primaries). Another way to look at it - turnout for the Democratic nominating process topped the turnout for the Republican nominating process by over 309,000. So, which party is more connected to the people?

Don't give up your day job. I fully expect Moran and McAuliffe to work pretty hard for Creigh. Yeah they are smarting from the shellacking, but it is also in their interests for Deeds and Democrats to be successful this November. McAuliffe's life is all about politics and he'll reemerge on the national stage (doubt he'll test Virginia waters again) and a McAuliffe-aided win will restore some polish. Moran, who I think has much to offer Virginia, is in a different situation. Brian gave up his day job in the House of Delegates to concentrate on the campaign, so now he has no natural base from which to launch a comeback. I have no doubt he'll find a way, and the starting point is being a good soldier for Deeds and the other Democratic campaigns.

Okay, enough of this for now. Was going to make a comment or two about the lieutenant governor race (like how did Signer do so well in a few Valley localities) but that will have to wait or not happen at all. Just had to get a neighbor's spooked cow out of the yard (soft soil = deep divots) and back with her calf. Need to brew some iced tea and cool off after the exercise. A big load of recycling to take before the storms gear up this afternoon. Cluck.

Deeds Interview

Since he represents the area in the Virginia Senate, Creigh Deeds is no stranger to the folks at NBC29. He joined them for a live interview the evening after his big win in the Democratic primary. I'm having a little trouble with the embed, so here is the link to the pop up video. It is a good one!

From a distance

As you can tell from the photo, I'm watching the closing week of the campaign from a distance. No, not vacationing although the location is certainly famous for that and many other things. Actually, the 8:00 - 5:00 days are all work, grading AP exams for ETS. But the evenings are fine. Missed a photo opportunity this evening as the jumbo jet with the shuttle riding piggyback cruised at low altitude right down the coast. 

Even while I'm in the state that Bushwhacked us, I'm keeping a close eye online and on my inbox for news about Virginia's Democratic primary. Today's big news came from Public Policy Polling - new numbers are in that show Creigh Deeds pulling ahead in the last weeks of the campaign. According to the poll Creigh Deeds is at 27%, followed by Terry McAuliffe at 24%, and Brian Moran at 22%. The previous poll had McAuliffe at 29% while Deeds and Moran were trailing at 20% each.

Now this is certainly great news, but with six days to go, it is still a jump ball. For one thing, the poll's MoE is ±4.1%. For another thing, there are still a lot of undecideds. 

The poll cites a couple of developments - notably the Washington Post's endorsement of Creigh Deeds and a decline in McAuliffe's support in regions where Moran has run ads attacking him. 

Now the poll doesn't say this, but from where I roost, I'd say there is another factor at play - Democrats are coming back to the Virginia flock. Democrats know Creigh Deeds. He is one of them and has carried the party banner through lean years and the recent blue years. He's steady. He is true blue. At the end of the day, Democrats want a candidate who will be a winner in November and that candidate is Creigh Deeds. One opponent hasn't quite made the sale. The other talks big but we know he is a roll of the dice, and Virginians aren't big on gambling.

The poll also found Jody Wagner leading Mike Signer 27% to 11%. Lots of undecideds there too!

With the race so close, and the future of the Democratic Party and Virginia at stake, it is critical to get out the Deeds vote. Since I've flown the coop, I've already cast my vote for Creigh and Jody and have been reminding family and friends to make voting a priority on June 9. That's your job too - be sure you vote and get others to do the same. If Virginia Democrats turn out, Creigh Deeds will be our nominee and Bob McDonnell will be worried... very worried.

Endorsement - Governor

My endorsement of Creigh Deeds for Governor should come as no surprise to anyone who has been reading CCC for a while. The Deeds badge has been on the site for a couple months and a number of previous posts have praised the work of the Bath County Senator. Anyone who knows me personally is also aware that I've been a consistent supporter of Creigh - my truck has sported a Deeds bumper sticker for six or eight months and I've openly stated my support whenever appropriate and possible. I've attended nearly every Deeds event in the area.

Before explaining my support for Deeds, I will point out that I have lots of respect for Brian Moran. While I hope Creigh gets the nomination, I hope Brian will try again. He has much to offer the people of Virginia. As for the other fellow in the race, I think he'd be a double-shot poison pill for Virginia Democrats - if nominated he will simultaneously divide the party while uniting Republicans. All the money in the world won't overcome that.

So, why the support for Creigh Deeds for Governor? 

First, I've known the man for 12-15 years. He is honest, honorable, caring, smart, hardworking, and a host of other desirable characteristics we too rarely find in our public servants. A Governor Deeds will make Virginians proud.

Second, he is clearly the most immersed in policy and policy making of all of the candidates of either party. He's a bit of a policy wonk, but at the same time is steeped in the practical ins and outs of Richmond politics. Creigh knows the ropes and knows when to yank them hard and when to allow a little slack. He will be a get 'er done Governor.

Third, Creigh Deeds is our absolute best chance to beat reactionary Bob and a state and national GOP desperate for a win in Virginia. Creigh will unite Democrats, attract some moderate suburban Republicans, and pick up a majority of the independents. That is a winning combination for Virginia Democrats - a fact demonstrated by the likes of Warner, Kaine, and Webb.

Join me in voting for Creigh Deeds in the Democratic Primary. Together we'll carry on the tradition of responsive and good government in Virginia.

Raking in the corn

While the numbers aren't new and neither are many of the conclusions, an article on the gubernatorial race fundraising in The News Leader today is worth a read. Sure, most of this has been rehashed in newspapers and blogs every time a new round of fundraising reports is filed. Still, there are some interesting points:

• 2009 will probably break the 2005 record of $41 million. Part of the reason is the GOP desperation for a win in a state trending blue. Another aspect is our odd-year elections, which means Virginia is one of the few games for the big national money. And, don't discount Terry McAuliffe's fundraising prowess.
• Brian Moran does well in his base of NOVA, but in spite of leaving the House of Delegates to focus on his campaign and fundraising, he didn't exactly overwhelm Creigh Deeds who stayed in the Senate and was prohibited from fundraising for a month and a half. I like Brian, but it seems to me this three-way race has kind of left him without a natural statewide base.
• Terry McAuliffe can certainly find the fat wallets, twist the arms, and raise serious money - $4.2 million ain't chicken feed. But, with two-thirds coming from out of state, McAuliffe's fundraising highlights his greatest vulnerability - the perception that he's a national Democrat, not a Virginia Democrat.
• Creigh Deeds has been the most successful fundraiser in more regions of the state than his opponents. Traditionally, Virginia has been a low-turnout state in primaries - meaning party activists usually determine the nominee. That base admires Deeds and the fact that he's been a Democratic team player for years. Since we have an open primary, some independents and moderate Republicans (who are uncomfortable with right wing Bob; but they'll be there for him if McAuliffe is the nominee) may vote. Deeds has support in both groups and that may provide just the edge necessary in a tight vote split three ways.

June 9 seems so far away. And, so close.

Clearing out the smoke

This past Wednesday, the annual Wakefield Shad Planking, a time-honored political right of passage in Virginia, was held just off Rt. 460 in a Sussex County grove. Rain had dampened the pines, but you can be assured those in attendance enjoyed the beer, the smoke, thousands of yard signs jamming the roads, and the shad.

Enjoyed the shad? A oily and boney fish smoked all day with a over-salted basting sauce! Must be an acquired taste - one I will probably never come by. But, I must say their fried fish is great. No, I wasn't there this year - last time I made it was 2006 when only Jim Webb gave himself much of a chance and even Cooter's bluegrass music lured few to his booth. George Allen was working the crowd with his arrogant smirk of confidence that would be wiped off his face a few months later.

So, this must-attend event brought together all the gubernatorial candidates for a day of beer, banter, and bluster. Well, not quite. Actually, the biggest news to come out of the Shad Planking was about the candidate who chose not to attend - Senator Creigh Deeds. While Democrats Terry McAuliffe and Brian Moran shared the stage with Republican Bob McDonnell for speeches that nobody remembers, Creigh Deeds was about as far away as you can get and still be in Virginia - the beautiful town of Abingdon.

Deeds joined U.S. Representative Rick Boucher for a day of campaigning in the great southwestern corner of the Commonwealth. The themes of the day were Deed's plans for jobs and education, but the real messages were (1) Deeds marches to his own drummer, (2) one of the most respected Virginia Democrats is squarely in his corner, and (3) Deeds prefers trout to shad (well, I just made the last one up... but once I did attend a Deeds' event with delicious grilled trout). Boucher endorsed Deeds last December and this was a great opportunity for the two men to send a message not only to folks in Abingdon, but to all small town and rural Virginians that Creigh Deeds has the best chance for a Democratic win this November:

Creigh Deeds does indeed march to his own drummer. It is the same drummer that kept him working in the Virginia Senate rather than resign for more campaigning and fundraising. It the same drummer that finds him taking up issues for regular families all across the state. It is the same drummer says raising big campaign dollars is less important than listening to and talking with Virginians. It must be the same drummer he learned in mountains of Bath County that served him (and his constituents) well through many years in the General Assembly.

So while his opponents were speechifying and blowing enough political smoke to outdo theguys doing the shad, Deeds was doing what he does best - talking with real folks about real issues and real solutions. Yeah, the big out-of-state money may be betting on another horse, but on June 9 this dark horse may just surprise everybody.

Creigh Deeds scares the bejesus out of opponents

Gubernatorial candidate Creigh Deeds has gone far beyond anyone's expectations for fundraising. Remember, Deeds kept his seat in the Senate of Virginia to do the people's business. In doing so, he passed up 46 days of fundraising and campaigning while his opponents were stumping and hitting up everyone and their uncle for a donation.

But Deeds surprised everyone, perhaps even the candidate himself, by raising more money in 44 days than he'd raised in the previous six months! He now has $1.2 million cash-on-hand... an astonishing 97% from Virginians. Sure, Terry McAuliffe has raised more... but how much is from out-of-state from people who don't know Virginia or care about our issues?

Creigh has the issues, the Virginia experience, the policy expertise, and the heart to carry on in the Warner/Kaine tradition that has moved Virginia forward. He is the only candidate who can whip RightWingBob in November. But, first he needs to win the June 9 primary. Want to help? Let me tell you where to go! If that isn't your cup of tea, go here to volunteer.

No pecking in the Valley grist?

The Democratic gubernatorial candidates have agreed to a series of five debates, but not one is in the Shenandoah Valley or even very close to the 6th District.

The campaigns of Creigh Deeds, Brian Moran, and Terry McAuliffe announced yesterday that the candidates will debate five times around the Commonwealth - April 19 in Williamsburg, April 23 in Hampton, April 28 in Danville, April 29 in Blacksburg, and May 19 in Annandale. Details and formats of the debates are still being debated. They've also agree to several joint appearances - again, none in the Valley.

Nearly a dozen local Democratic committees in the Shenandoah Valley, led by Rockingham and Harrisonburg, had been working for a couple months to bring the candidates to a forum/debate at JMU. Apparently they've been stiffed. A quick glance at the locations shows the first two debates only about 20 miles apart while voters in big regions of the state, including the Shenandoah Valley and central Virginia, are left to read about it in the newspaper.

It is interesting that areas in which Senator Creigh Deeds is best known, the Valley and Charlottesville, will not host a debate. Could it be the Moran and McAuliffe campaigns were a bit chicken about giving Creigh the podium in front of a friendly home crowd? Cluck!

The primary is June 9. There is plenty of opportunity within the schedule and time before the primary for the campaigns to agree to a couple more debates in other areas of the state. Lots of Democrats hope they will do it!