Beware unintended consequences

Delegate Lacey Putney (I-19th District) is chair of the House Appropriations Committee. He has a suggestion for the upcoming session of the General Assembly, an intermission of sorts:

The possibility of coming into session, maybe recessing, let the members go back, except the money committees working on the budget, in order to give us time to see what they're going to do in Washington.

Putney's idea was hatched as the Appropriations Committee considers a $77 billion budget amid uncertainties over healthcare reform in Washington, D.C. Depending on if and what kind of bill is passed could have direct impact on the Commonwealth's budget. So a pause for more up-to-date information makes sense from the perspective of Richmond.

But, beware of the unintended consequence of passing an interrupted timeline on the local governments and school boards. Typically, city councils, boards of supervisors, and school boards are deeply immersed in their own budget writing after the first of the year, a process that continues well into spring with required steps including public hearings. School boards are supposed to submit budgets to city councils and boards of supervisors by April 1. Since the General Assembly is developing the state budget during January and February, school boards always find themselves working with estimates of state funding rather than hard numbers that are available only after the House and Senate reconcile a budget at the very end of the session.

Putney's idea would indeed buy time for Richmond budget writers to factor in the ramifications of actions in D.C. But, if the General Assembly recesses for an extended period of time it will place greater uncertainty (above and beyond expected budget cuts) and and time constraints on local budget deliberations. Obviously, there are ways to work around these issues, if the General Assembly decides that a "Putney recess" is in order. Now is the time to think about dealing with possible unintended consequences that could get passed on to local officials. Like an unfunded mandate?

Collision Course... maybe, maybe not

As Governor Tim Kaine enters his final months in office and Bob McDonnell prepares to take office, the Virginia budget situation continues to deteriorate because of the nationwide economic downturn that started in 2008. The Commonwealth will cut $250 million, or more, from the current budget to balance the books. Bad enough, but the really bad news is the expected $3 billion shortfall in the next two-year budget. The president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond delivered the bad news - this recession, like the last two, will see lagging job creation. Jobs = income taxes + retail sales which are cornerstones of state revenues. A tiny bright spot is NOVA, which generates a big chunk of tax revenues, seems to be rebounding a little quicker. Governor Kaine will have a strong hand in drafting the budget, but the new Governor will influence priorities and ultimately the General Assembly will have to deal with the tough times.

I guess there is a little comfort in comparing ourselves to our neighbors. Although joblessness across Virginia is bad enough, it is far worse in many other states. So while the Virginia budget is hurting, the situation in many other states is horrendous.

Coming at the same time as the budget woes, a coalition of "school choice" groups says Virginians want more nonpublic school options and are willing for tax dollars to go in that direction. Among the poll's findings is that 62% of Virginians see their public schools as good or excellent, 35% want to send their children to private schools, 10% prefer charter schools (a public school freed from most regulations affecting regular public schools), and 9% want to homeschool. The groups that sponsored the poll are pushing tax credit scholarships and/or school vouchers - both schemes where tax dollars go to private schools but not through direct government payments to the schools.

First, it is important to understand - there is school choice in Virginia. Any parent can choose to home school or to send their child to a private school. Oversight by the Commonwealth and local school boards is generally quite lax and there is little or no accountability such as public schools face with the Standards of Learning.

The issue is really about money, tax money to be exact. Should the Commonwealth give tax vouchers to parents or tax credits individuals and corporations who donate to special scholarships for private school tuition. Either way fewer tax dollars are collected and private schools receive support but without much public accountability. School funding in Virginia is complicated and beyond this post, but if less tax money is collected the General Fund is impacted - which will mean less funding not only for public education but perhaps for other core services.

With a state budget gasping for air, now might seem like a bad time for these school choice groups to be asking for a slice of the state tax pie. But, several dynamics have changed and new political leverage may favor this initiative:

• Although he rebranded himself as a moderate, Bob McDonnell owes much of his victory to the religious right. Groups like the Family Foundation, who support these school choice schemes, have an inside line to the Governor-elect and they expect for him to deliver, if not in 2010, certainly over the next four years.
• With the economic downturn, many private schools have experienced enrollment declines. Parents who formerly sent their kids to a private school now see the apple of their eye in an increasingly crowded (because of lack of funding) public school classroom. Hence, both parents and private schools are more motivated to join the fight.
• An anti-union resurgence has emboldened conservative groups who want to destroy all employee groups, including the Virginia Education Association. Can you really be a union without collective bargaining or power to strike? Groups like the Chamber of Commerce which may not join the fray on school choice grounds may chime in simply for the union bashing.

Over the past five years the House of Delegates passed legislation for scholarship funds but the Virginia Senate killed it each time. There will soon be two Senate special elections to replace Republicans Ken Cuccinelli who was elected Attorney General and Ken Stolle who was elected Sheriff of Virginia Beach. Even if the GOP wins both, it is difficult to imagine the head counting on these school choice issues is changed much - unless a few current Senators have a change of heart.

More likely, the advocates of school choice funding schemes see it as something, not to be achieved next year, but rather in the next two to four years. They've had their "preseason" over the past five years in the House of Delegates. Now it is game on - in the first quarter the House will again pass school choice funding legislation where it may well die again in the Senate for both philosophical and budget reasons. Afterwards, the school choice funding advocates will have field position and in the second half they expect complete victory. By 2012 the budget situation will have improved along with the national economy. Governor McDonnell's pen will set priorities and he'll be expected to pay the religious right back for their important role in getting him elected. In 2011, the General Assembly, including all 40 Senators, will be up for election and some Republicans who haven't been on the school choice side will be under extreme pressure to conform or be pushed out. School choice funding folks believe that trio of changes - an improved economy, owning the Governor, controlling the Senate - will converge to carry them to victory.

Wolf in sheep's clothing

Tom Perriello has been besieged with attack ads on NBC29 since his courageous vote on healthcare reform. Many of those ads are paid for and sponsored by the Chamber of Commerce. The Chamber, which was once seen as nonpartisan and in many communities as a civic group akin to the Ruritans or Lions Club, has increasingly become aligned with the Republican Party. From where I roost, the Chamber of Commerce has joined the NRA and others as virtual wings of the GOP.

Another group by the name of 60 Plus Association has joined in the attacks against Rep. Perriello. Their ads feature grandma and grandpa types blasting the congressman for selling out Virginians. Being unfamiliar with 60 Plus Association I got a little assistance from our friends at Google to see what I could learn.

Claiming to be a "non-partisan seniors advocacy group with a free enterprise, less government, less taxes approach," 60 Plus appears to actually have few members and depends on funding from the pharmaceutical companies and other conservative groups. Its "leaders" seem to be in an interlocking directorate with conservative groups and individuals ranging from Amway, the National Right to Work Committee, and the Heritage Foundation to GOP direct mail mastermind Richard Viguerie. There's more online including at SourceWatch.

Below, Rachel Maddow exposes the right wing connections of 60 Plus in August of this year:

It is always helpful to know who is really spreading the BS. It may not be the pleasant looking grandma like you thought.

Southerners/Republicans Favor Federal Help

I was intrigued by this poll, but found my friend Riley already had an excellent post on Blue Ridge Data. Cross-posted here with his permission.

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The anti-big government tea party and Gadsden Flag contingent, sure made a lot of noise and fuss this year, but here's some data to suggest that Southerners are more economically rational than the FoxNewsCorp sponsored "tea party" storyline would indicate.

New data from polling by Winthrop University, has some findings that run counter to GOP and FoxNews talking points. <> Overall, 71.6% Southerners strongly support government programs to create jobs and 62.7% favor assisting states in financial crisis. <> 94.5% of Southern Democrats strongly favor government-backed initiatives to spark economic growth. <> 68.9% of Southern Independents favor government-backed initiatives to spark economic growth. <> And to invoke Gomer Pyle ... Surprise, Surprise, Surprise ... 53.4% of Southern Republicans also support job aid programs and 50.9% support aid to struggling states.

Poll Dates: 10/24 to 11/7 2009

n=866 respondents in 11 Southern states.

MOE= 3.33%.

h/t Media Matters Action

Community Colleges Raise Tuition

Effective with the spring semester, tuition at Virginia's community colleges will go up by just under $22 for the typical three-credit course. On Thursday the State Board for Community Colleges approved a tuition increase of $7.30/credit hour to help offset cuts caused by the state budget shortfalls. The increase should help our community colleges avoid some of the layoffs and overcrowded classes that had been anticipated.

Even with the increase, Virginia's community colleges are a great deal!

Troubled waters

A new report (PDF file) entitled "Wasting Our Waterways: Toxic Industrial Pollution and the Unfilled Promise of the Clean Water Act" by Environment America says Virginia's waterways are the second dirtiest in the United States. The report says Virginia had more than 18 million pounds of toxic chemicals released into its waterways, second only to Indiana. The New River (NC, VA, WV) is the worst in the Commonwealth and second worst in the entire nation with 14,090,633 pounds of total discharges. Ranking second in the state (31st in the nation) is the James River with 1,686,939 pounds. The Roanoke River also made the nation's top dirty 50 in total discharges. The discharge numbers are from 2007 when Environment America says more than 232 million pounds of toxic chemicals were dumped into 1,900 waterways.

Here at CCC I've previously posted about water quality issues with Shenandoah Valley rivers, most notably trash and animal/human wastes in our streams. When you consider the trash, the mostly unseen mix of chemicals, the bacteria, the nutrients, and the sediment/run-off that goes into our waterways it is pretty scary for anybody who wants to swim, canoe, fish, or use our precious water resources. W.C. Fields only touched on one irrelevant aspect of water quality in his famous quote about why he doesn't drink water. W.C., there are lots of other reasons!

Tom Toles' cartoon in the Washington Post November 13, 2009 sums it up pretty well.

Last week's other loser

Senator Emmett Hanger, I hope you are watching your back. Folks are already taking aim at your political life... and most likely they are your fellow Republicans. Democrats are still in a daze and aren't plotting that far ahead....

Senator Hanger represents the 24th Senate District that includes Augusta County, Greene County, Highland County, Lexington, Staunton, Waynesboro, plus parts of Albemarle County, Rockbridge County, and Rockingham County. You may recall that right wingers in the GOP worked hard to deny Hanger the party's nomination in 2007. They put up Scott Sayre who Hanger eventually defeated in the primary, but not until deep rifts between party factions were exposed.

Flash forward to the summer of 2009. At Staunton's July 4 parade Senator Hanger had his own float (actually a convertible) that was quite separate from the Republican float. Then later that month came Chris Saxman's surprise announcement that he was withdrawing from the 20th District House of Delegates race. Although there was a very public forum at Buffalo Gap High School, the local GOP chairs privately interviewed candidates and just as privately picked Staunton City Councilman Dickie Bell as their nominee. Bell easily won the election in November.

So, what does all this have to do with Senator Hanger? The bitter feelings from 2007 are still festering among local Republicans. Hanger, who is still popular with many in the GOP (and independent) electorate remains distrusted, even disliked, by his party's right wing. Reports indicate that the GOP chairs' interviews of potential candidates in the 20th District got not only into issues and electability, but also touched on their relationship and loyalty to the Senator. Anyone who was seen as too friendly to Hanger, or not tight enough with the conservative faction, had no chance of being the nominee. Equally important was picking a nominee acceptable to Delegate Saxman.

Looking forward to 2011, most observers assume Senator Hanger will seek renomination by the GOP and another term. But he faces considerable obstacles. Hanger, though he remains popular with many in the community, is largely estranged from the local Republican committees. Delegate Dickie Bell, who owes his nomination to those local chairs and to Chris Saxman will never be a Hanger ally and may well continue what some say was Saxman's behind-the-scenes sabotage of the Senator.

Speaking of Saxman, come January he is free to roam the political landscape. He says he will concentrate on "school choice" issues, but nobody buys that as his last waltz in politics. While some of the rumors swirling around his exit from the House race would, if true, likely end his career in electoral politics; the rumors of his future political aspirations have more credibility. Some say he may challenge Bob Goodlatte, but this bird wonders if his plans might be focused more on 2011.

Added to the toxic mix for Senator Hanger is the rise of the Tea Party activists and their appeal to right wing Republicans and the continuing local involvement of far right groups like the Club for Growth fighting healthcare reform. The nexus of a hostile party leadership and right wing grassroots politics spells danger for a mountain-valley Republican like Hanger. The Senator is well-advised to watch his back, to see who is following, to see who is gaining, to see who is taking aim. Might be a whole flock!