Hope and Opportunity Tour

More than two dozen Staunton/Augusta Democrats gathered at Carded Graphics in the Green Hills Industrial Park to be part of DPVA Chairman Richard Cranwell's "Hope and Opportunity Tour" for Creigh Deeds. The always entertaining and enlightening Cranwell used facts, wit, and a broad smile to deliver his core message - if Virginians want to move Virginia's economy forward, in all parts of the state, Creigh Deeds is the man to do it.

About 30 supporters gathered at Carded Graphics to hear DPVA Chair Richard Cranwell. Also speaking was Staunton Councilman Bruce Elder, Rockingham Democratic Chair Lowell Fulk. In the crowd was Staunton Councilman Dave Metz and 20th House District candidate Erik Curren.

Comparing the Deeds plan with the McDonnell "plan," Cranwell pointed out in stark terms that under the Deeds plan, small businesses, which are a hallmark of the Shenandoah Valley economy, will get tax breaks for creating one job... and the next one job. McDonnell's "plan" is focused on larger businesses creating 50 jobs. Now that all sounds good, but very few businesses in the Valley have that many employees now, much less being able to create that many new jobs. In short, McDonnell has forgotten all about rural Virginia.

Cranwell explained how Deeds' long term commitment to economic development, to K-12 and higher education, to a good transportation system are all designed to continue the Warner/Kaine policies that made Virginia the "best managed state," the "best state to do business," and the "best state to raise a child." Pointing to the state-of-the-art facility at Carded Graphics, he noted that a grant from the Governor's Opportunity Fund helped to make it possible. And by the way, who was the chief architect of the legislation that created GOF? Creigh Deeds! And who opposed it and subsequently fought against increasing funding? Bob McDonnell.

The choice, Cranwell said, is crystal clear. We can move Virginia forward with Creigh Deeds or return to the failed Gilmore politics of "No!"

The PA system boomed an announcement to employees during Cranwell's talk prompting a moment of silence and reflection on his statement of the obvious - "the choice in this election is crystal clear."

Staunton City Councilman Bruce Elder reinforced Cranwell's themes relating how Creigh has always been a good friend of the Valley while McDonnell, who claims several hometowns around the state, hardly knows the Valley exists except for zipping down I-81 or flying into Shenandoah Valley Regional Airport for a quick rally. And gone again.

Richard Cranwell talks business with Erik Curren (right) after the formal presentation ended. Curren is running for 20th District House of Delegates. Curren has put out a detailed business plan that shares similarities with the Deed's plan. His opponent, Dickie Bell, has no plan except for saying things like "drill here, drill now." In the Valley??

The "Hope and Opportunity Tour" started early in the day in Winchester and included a stop at Virginia Poultry Growers Cooperative in Hinton. Cranwell departed for additional stops in Danville and Lynchburg. Tomorrow he'll head south on I-81 to Wytheville, Bluefield, Marion, and Bristol.

Blue Risin'

Success breeds success. With Virginia voting Democratic in a presidential election for the first time since 1964, electing a second Democrat as U.S. Senator, and holding a majority of the seats in the House of Representatives, there is optimism about continuing the blue risin' in November '09. A few examples:

Speaker of the House of Delegates, Bill Howell, will face an opponent for the 28th District seat. Stafford County Board of Supervisors Chairman George Schwartz announced that he will run for the Virginia House of Delegates. Schwartz said:

"My term as supervisor is coming to a close. I think I've accomplished what I set out to do. I have every confidence that the board will continue on the track it is presently on next year, and the time is right to take on this next challenge."

As speaker, Bill Howell hasn't been quite the Darth Vader that his predecessor was, but sometimes it is close. At any rate, on the key partisan issues, House Republicans usually march in carefully controlled lockstep to Howell's marching orders. Signs of a crack - some GOP delegates (along with some tobacco Democrats) watered down the restaurant smoking ban agreed to by Governor Kaine and Speaker Howell.

There will be an open seat 52nd District. Jeff Frederick who wears three hats - delegate, Virginia GOP chair, and dunce - announced he won't seek reelection. He's pushing his wife, Amy, to run for the seat. Many observers think this Prince William district, which is trending Democratic and embarrassed by Frederick's strange behaviors, will flip this year.

Here, in the most Republican area of the commonwealth, the central Shenandoah Valley, it looks like Republicans will face challenges in most districts.

In the 24th District, Jeff Price has been on the campaign trail for months and appears to be the likely nominee to take on Ben Cline. Price is a businessman and family man whose wife is a school teacher. From what I can tell, Price wasn't too political in the past, at least not in a partisan way. But, he became frustrated with the extreme Republican dogma, gridlock in the House of Delegates, and with the inept representation provided by Cline. He's run an energetic and creative campaign for the past six months meeting with small groups in Amherst, Rockbridge, and Augusta.

In the 26th District that comprises Harrisonburg and part of Rockingham, Gene Hart is taking on Matt Lohr. Like Cline, Lohr is a party line type guy. Hart calls for "Leadership That Works" which seems to mean ending partisanship and seeking practical solutions. Hart is an attorney with a solo practice in Harrisonburg and his wife is a special education teacher.

In the 25th District, Steve Landes will certainly face an opponent - two Democrats are apparently seeking the nomination which will be decided at the June 9 primary when the statewide candidates will be chosen. James Noel began gathering signatures on petitions a month or so ago and has visited local committees. More recently, Dr. Greg Marrow has expressed interest in running; he's a laser eye surgeon and a cofounder of Seven Generations. The 25th includes Waynesboro and the NE part of Augusta, eastern Rockingam, and a few western Albemarle precincts. Noel is from Augusta; Marrow from Rockingham.

The 20th District includes Staunton, Highland, parts of Augusta and Rockingham, including Bridgewater and Massanetta Springs. At this point, the very partisan incumbent, Chris Saxman, is unopposed as no Democrat has announced intentions to run. Not too surprising since the 20th is a gerrymandered district with solid Republican leanings in the rural areas. But, Democrats point to Staunton becoming increasingly blue and inroads in other areas as well. Some local party activists are hopeful that Bruce Elder might jump into the race. It sounds enticing, but Elder seems to be enjoying his influential role on Staunton City Council. While other names have surfaced and one individual seems to be actively weighting the pros/cons, there haven't been any announcements. Yet!

Similar Democratic activity can be found around the state and there is a good chance many Republican delegates will face real opposition. All of which bodes well for the Democrats picking up the half dozen seats necessary to control the House of Delegates.

Where in the world is Chris?

Where's Chris? Chris Saxman, that is.

Delegate Saxman has been AWOL since his man, McCain, took a drubbing in Virginia last Tuesday. Not only did Virginia go Democratic for the first time since 1964 under his leadership, Saxman's hometown, Staunton turned blue.

Saxman was co-chair of McCain's campaign and had spent weeks discounting the polls and justifying the negative robo-calls that, in the end, may have done more harm than good. He'd dropped the hint that a job in a McCain administration sounded good and he was more than willing to give up his seat in the House of Delegates.

Out at the grist mill there is talk about Delegate Saxman not really being interested in representing this district, but sees it as a stepping stone. He floated his name as a potential candidate for U.S. Senate - that was mostly about getting play in the media and buzz among GOP activists. He's boxed in by Bolling running for Lt. Governor again - yep, Chris really wanted to run for that. With nowhere to go that met his ego, Chris hoped McCain would whisk him away to the nation's capitol.

There is also talk about Saxman being one of the least liked legislators by his colleagues in Richmond. Perhaps it is his self-righteous attitude. There's a hint of arrogance and an unwillingness to compromise. Perhaps that is why he isn't considered a very effective as a legislator.

Residents who journey to Richmond to be citizen-lobbyists report that when pressed on issues with which he disagrees, he is known to change the topic to something totally irrelevant or cut the meeting short - disrespecting his own constituents. He is right and his mind is set in stone, so why waste his valuable time in discussion?

So, as the parties eye the 2009 elections, the speculation that he'll have an opponent isn't too surprising. One name that surfaces is Bruce Elder who previously challenged Saxman and has built a resume on Staunton City Council. There is also talk, without a name as yet, of an individual from Bridgewater who is interested.

It appears Republicans will be challenged throughout their stronghold in the Shenandoah Valley. Jeff Price of Amherst Co. has already announced he'll challenge Ben Cline. And, most Democrats, seeing Valley cities turning blue, expect to nominate candidates to challenge Matt Lohr and Steve Landes as well.

Early prediction: although Democrats won't bump off all of these entrenched incumbents, their new-found strength in Virginia increases their odds of capturing control of the House of Delegates. Stay tuned.

1.1.16

Top Business Bird

According to Forbes, Virginia ranks 1st as the "Best State for Business," a spot it has held for three years. Virginia's lead over Utah, Washington, North Carolina, and Georgia (which jumped from 15th) is razor thin. Virginia was lauded for a good regulatory environment, lower energy costs, and and educated labor force. Areas where Virginia "declined" are in prospects for future growth and in business costs.

When a politician tells you that Virginia has burdensome regulations on small business, it isn't necessarily so. Could it be that the lack of regulations is why many of the state's rivers and the Chesapeake Bay are under stress?

Forbes noted that Virginia business costs (highly weighted by the magazine) increased mostly because of a rise in labor costs, which are "now approaching the national average." In other words, in spite of being an educated labor force, Virginian's are paid less. Perhaps this is related to the weak union environment? Good for business, not so good for families. Guess your take on this ranking depends on whose chicken is getting plucked.

If you are familiar with Virginia's demographics and disparity of wealth, you have figured out that Virginia's economic engine is driven, to a large extent, by Northern Virginia. If you took NOVA out of the equation (Forbes noted the proximity to D.C. as important in the educated labor force stat), the commonwealth would probably fall to the mid point of the 50 states. Salaries for chickens in NOVA far outpace those in the Southside, the Valley, and Southwest. Ditto the commitment to K-12 education.

So, what is good for business isn't always good for the environment, or workers, or people in all parts of this diverse state. So, it is true - there really are lies, damned lies, and statistics!

In a Related Story?

Lobbyists in Virginia reached a new #1 record for spending to influence members of the General Assembly - over $20 million. Much of this was spent by business lobbyists to reduce regulations and create a favorable environment for their interests. Does all this grist influence delegates and senators to support business interests? Does Forbes like it? Apparently so.

Case in point - Virginian's overwhelmingly supported strong regulations on the predatory payday lending industry. Many local governments, led by Bruce Elder's efforts in Staunton, urged the General Assembly to take strong action. Payday lenders responded by spending $3.8 million (almost 20% of total spending by lobbyists) to defeat the most significant regulations. Payday lenders are still clucking along in their butt-ugly coops and the little birds are getting plucked.

Want to learn more about the grist your legislators are getting and who they are getting it from - Check out the Virginia Public Access Project. Find out who lobbies in Virginia at the Secretary of the Commonwealth.

On the Road Again

A study's says Virginia's 57,867 miles of roads and highways rank 16th in the nation in performance and costs. The conservative Reason Foundation. noted that "Virginia is the only state that spent more money on maintenance than it did on capital and bridge work . . . it really shows up in overall performance of the system."

The study noted that rural and western states tend to do better in this survey because of lower traffic volumes and many of their roads are newer. Eastern states and urban areas have older infrastructure. Virginia, which is a mixture of both illustrates the issue. The push to fix roads and to build new ones was driven by NOVA and Hampton Roads - regions with older infrastructure and rapidly increasing traffic counts. While there are issues in rural areas, I-81 for example, this issue is most keenly felt in those two areas.

The General Assembly, which failed to act during a special session on transportation, probably assured that the state will slip a few points in next year's survey. This was one area where business lobbyists (many of whom favored a long-term transportation commitment) clout couldn't overcome the short-sighted, no-tax, something-for-nothing legislators in the House of Delegates.