Primary lessons

Academics, pundits, bloggers, and everybody's brother will be analyzing Virginia's gubernatorial primary for the lessons of June 9. So, I may as well throw out a little cracked corn myself.

Money can't buy ya love. Terry McAuliffe had plenty of it. Brian Moran raised a bunch, too. Creigh told me way back in January, when McAuliffe jumped in, that now money would be less of a factor for him. Creigh predicted that McAuliffe and Moran would use their money mostly against each other, saying, "I'll have enough to get my message out and that's all I need...." McAuliffe's money raising prowess got him in the game, but in the end I think it hurt more than helped - Virginia Democrats didn't like the notion that big out-of-state money could buy the nomination.

Ya gotta stand for something. With his long record of service to the Commonwealth, Democrats knew where Creigh was coming from and where he wants to go. We got the sense that with Creigh was all about Virginia's future. With McAuliffe the message was more muddled - there was always the suspicion it was more about Terry's future and the Governor's Mansion was a stepping stone to somewhere else.

Sometimes endorsements matter. I generally don't think newspaper endorsements move that many voters. But, the Washington Post's endorsement of Deeds seems to have been a turning point in this race. NOVA voters, who are often more focused on D.C. than on Richmond, have an interesting connection with the Post - many seem to rely on it for good advice on what's happening down state. The endorsement, back by solid reasoning, explained Deeds to them terms that made it clear he wasn't some hillbilly from the backwoods and why he was the best choice for Fairfax, et al. As the news about the Post's endorsement rippled across the state, it reinforced every part of Deeds' message.

Its the Old Dominion, after all. Steeped in political tradition, there is a Virginia way of doing things. It is virtually impossible to imagine someone moving to the Commonwealth just to run for statewide office. That may fly for New York, but not here. Yes, I know McAuliffe has a home in Virginia, but until he showed interest in running for Governor, nobody except his next door neighbor knew that. I guess that old bumper sticker about Virginia not being just a place but a state of mind, sort of sums it up. McAuliffe never sold us on being a Virginian. Creigh's Virginia roots, nourished in Bath County and honed in Charlottesville, run deeper than either of his opponents.

Sound and fury vs slow and steady. Creigh has been in Virginia public life for two decades. He's steadily moved from local office to the House of Delegates and the Senate of Virginia. Not flashy, but constant progress on issues, on finding solutions, on serving constituents. McAuliffe entered the race with all kind of flash - I recall one blogger/online news writing something like "...when did I know I'd support Terry McAuliffe? From the moment he walked into the room...." I'll admit McAuliffe can work a crowd and capture the attention of a room - I've seen it firsthand and he is impressive. Most, but not all, Virginia Democrats got over the initial infatuation and came back to Creigh, who they knew and trusted.

Virginia Democrats like hard work. All three candidates are hard working guys, but I think Creigh helped himself by keeping his seat in the Virginia Senate. Yes, he gave up two months of fundraising, but staying in the legislature reinforced his reputation of being a guy who works hard for constituents and the state - traits we want in the governor. Hey, didn't right wing Bob resign as attorney general??

Virginia Democrats like winning. The last few years have been like the wonder years for Virginia Democrats. Winning is so much more fun than losing. And the government works better too. As June 9 approached many Democrats asked the question - who can win in November? Most answered Creigh Deeds - he'd have the best chance to unite the party after a primary battle and, come November, he'd pull in independents and perhaps some moderate Republicans turned off by right wing Bob. Moran never made that sale. McAuliffe, with the Clinton connection, was his own negative advertising on this one.

Deeds river runs wide and deep. Creigh's victory is impressive not just because of his 50% win over two well-known and well-funded opponents, it is astonishing that he won every congressional district except the 3rd (Richmond through parts of Hampton Roads) where McAuliffe beat him by 2%. His biggest percentage was in his own 6th District (70%) but he did very well in many others, often besting his nearest opponent by double digits. Creigh won big where expected, but also beat Moran and McAuliffe on their home turf.

What primary? With statewide turnout of 319,000 or about 6.3% (best was 11.7% in the 8th District), it is clear that the idea of a primary hasn't quite caught on in the Old Dominion. Just not part of our tradition - yet. That's too bad, because it is clearly the more democratic process. But, 2009 is better turnout than the June 2005 primary that was a dual primary - the GOP had a primary for governor and attorney general while the Dems had one for lieutenant governor (there were also House primaries). Another way to look at it - turnout for the Democratic nominating process topped the turnout for the Republican nominating process by over 309,000. So, which party is more connected to the people?

Don't give up your day job. I fully expect Moran and McAuliffe to work pretty hard for Creigh. Yeah they are smarting from the shellacking, but it is also in their interests for Deeds and Democrats to be successful this November. McAuliffe's life is all about politics and he'll reemerge on the national stage (doubt he'll test Virginia waters again) and a McAuliffe-aided win will restore some polish. Moran, who I think has much to offer Virginia, is in a different situation. Brian gave up his day job in the House of Delegates to concentrate on the campaign, so now he has no natural base from which to launch a comeback. I have no doubt he'll find a way, and the starting point is being a good soldier for Deeds and the other Democratic campaigns.

Okay, enough of this for now. Was going to make a comment or two about the lieutenant governor race (like how did Signer do so well in a few Valley localities) but that will have to wait or not happen at all. Just had to get a neighbor's spooked cow out of the yard (soft soil = deep divots) and back with her calf. Need to brew some iced tea and cool off after the exercise. A big load of recycling to take before the storms gear up this afternoon. Cluck.

From a distance

As you can tell from the photo, I'm watching the closing week of the campaign from a distance. No, not vacationing although the location is certainly famous for that and many other things. Actually, the 8:00 - 5:00 days are all work, grading AP exams for ETS. But the evenings are fine. Missed a photo opportunity this evening as the jumbo jet with the shuttle riding piggyback cruised at low altitude right down the coast. 

Even while I'm in the state that Bushwhacked us, I'm keeping a close eye online and on my inbox for news about Virginia's Democratic primary. Today's big news came from Public Policy Polling - new numbers are in that show Creigh Deeds pulling ahead in the last weeks of the campaign. According to the poll Creigh Deeds is at 27%, followed by Terry McAuliffe at 24%, and Brian Moran at 22%. The previous poll had McAuliffe at 29% while Deeds and Moran were trailing at 20% each.

Now this is certainly great news, but with six days to go, it is still a jump ball. For one thing, the poll's MoE is ±4.1%. For another thing, there are still a lot of undecideds. 

The poll cites a couple of developments - notably the Washington Post's endorsement of Creigh Deeds and a decline in McAuliffe's support in regions where Moran has run ads attacking him. 

Now the poll doesn't say this, but from where I roost, I'd say there is another factor at play - Democrats are coming back to the Virginia flock. Democrats know Creigh Deeds. He is one of them and has carried the party banner through lean years and the recent blue years. He's steady. He is true blue. At the end of the day, Democrats want a candidate who will be a winner in November and that candidate is Creigh Deeds. One opponent hasn't quite made the sale. The other talks big but we know he is a roll of the dice, and Virginians aren't big on gambling.

The poll also found Jody Wagner leading Mike Signer 27% to 11%. Lots of undecideds there too!

With the race so close, and the future of the Democratic Party and Virginia at stake, it is critical to get out the Deeds vote. Since I've flown the coop, I've already cast my vote for Creigh and Jody and have been reminding family and friends to make voting a priority on June 9. That's your job too - be sure you vote and get others to do the same. If Virginia Democrats turn out, Creigh Deeds will be our nominee and Bob McDonnell will be worried... very worried.

Endorsement - Governor

My endorsement of Creigh Deeds for Governor should come as no surprise to anyone who has been reading CCC for a while. The Deeds badge has been on the site for a couple months and a number of previous posts have praised the work of the Bath County Senator. Anyone who knows me personally is also aware that I've been a consistent supporter of Creigh - my truck has sported a Deeds bumper sticker for six or eight months and I've openly stated my support whenever appropriate and possible. I've attended nearly every Deeds event in the area.

Before explaining my support for Deeds, I will point out that I have lots of respect for Brian Moran. While I hope Creigh gets the nomination, I hope Brian will try again. He has much to offer the people of Virginia. As for the other fellow in the race, I think he'd be a double-shot poison pill for Virginia Democrats - if nominated he will simultaneously divide the party while uniting Republicans. All the money in the world won't overcome that.

So, why the support for Creigh Deeds for Governor? 

First, I've known the man for 12-15 years. He is honest, honorable, caring, smart, hardworking, and a host of other desirable characteristics we too rarely find in our public servants. A Governor Deeds will make Virginians proud.

Second, he is clearly the most immersed in policy and policy making of all of the candidates of either party. He's a bit of a policy wonk, but at the same time is steeped in the practical ins and outs of Richmond politics. Creigh knows the ropes and knows when to yank them hard and when to allow a little slack. He will be a get 'er done Governor.

Third, Creigh Deeds is our absolute best chance to beat reactionary Bob and a state and national GOP desperate for a win in Virginia. Creigh will unite Democrats, attract some moderate suburban Republicans, and pick up a majority of the independents. That is a winning combination for Virginia Democrats - a fact demonstrated by the likes of Warner, Kaine, and Webb.

Join me in voting for Creigh Deeds in the Democratic Primary. Together we'll carry on the tradition of responsive and good government in Virginia.

Jim McCloskey's cartoon misses the mark

I usually like Jim McCloskey's cartoons in The News Leader. Even when I disagree with his point, the cartoons are well-drawn and thought provoking, sometimes bringing readers to the edge of anger. Papers much larger than The News Leader would be blessed to have such a fine political cartoonist. But, I really fail to understand what point he is trying to make with the one published on May 12 (original here).

To imply that Terry McAuliffe doesn't have a brain is absurd - he's one of the most accomplished national political operatives in the United States. McCloskey could have said he isn't Virginia "blue blood" or something like that, but no brain? Gimme a break.

And Brian Moran without a heart? Where does that come from? Moran's heart is shown in a variety of issues that demonstrate he cares about everyday folks - most notably on health care. On a personal level he seems friendly and caring. No heart? Missed again, Jim.

So our cartoonist thinks Creigh Deeds has no chance. True he hasn't raised the money that his opponents have, but he's raised more money in more parts of Virginia than the other guys. He's a well-know favorite among party activists. Some polls have shown that among likely Democratic primary voters, Deeds does quite well. He has a very good chance. Strike three, Jim.

Our cute little girl wishes for "a choice." Perhaps I can get McCloskey's point... if his point is that a six year old wouldn't pay much attention to the details of the campaign and may only see three white guys about the same age running for governor. While they do agree on core principles (they are all Democrats after all) and their views on some issues are similar, a closer examination reveals significant differences on other issues. Young lady, that's your homework assignment.

Their backgrounds and experiences in Virginia government are quite different. McAuliffe comes from the world of national politics and most didn't even know he lived in the Commonwealth until a few months ago. Moran was honed by the hustle and bustle NOVA. Deeds sprang from rural/small town politics and, of the three, has produced the longest service and greatest record of accomplishment in Virginia government. Stylistically, they'd be different chief executives as well. For example, McAuliffe is the brash big presence in the room while Deeds would be a more quiet consensus builder working with both chambers of the General Assembly.

Over in the GOP, there really is NO CHOICE - Bob McDonnell is default nominee. While I'd never suggest he doesn't have a brain, many of his right wing views confirm he doesn't have a heart and he'll say about anything to win a vote. If the Democrats unite behind their nominee, one must wonder about his chances.

So Jim, I'll look forward to your next cartoon. I'm sure it will be a good one. Maybe a great one!

Raking in the corn

While the numbers aren't new and neither are many of the conclusions, an article on the gubernatorial race fundraising in The News Leader today is worth a read. Sure, most of this has been rehashed in newspapers and blogs every time a new round of fundraising reports is filed. Still, there are some interesting points:

• 2009 will probably break the 2005 record of $41 million. Part of the reason is the GOP desperation for a win in a state trending blue. Another aspect is our odd-year elections, which means Virginia is one of the few games for the big national money. And, don't discount Terry McAuliffe's fundraising prowess.
• Brian Moran does well in his base of NOVA, but in spite of leaving the House of Delegates to focus on his campaign and fundraising, he didn't exactly overwhelm Creigh Deeds who stayed in the Senate and was prohibited from fundraising for a month and a half. I like Brian, but it seems to me this three-way race has kind of left him without a natural statewide base.
• Terry McAuliffe can certainly find the fat wallets, twist the arms, and raise serious money - $4.2 million ain't chicken feed. But, with two-thirds coming from out of state, McAuliffe's fundraising highlights his greatest vulnerability - the perception that he's a national Democrat, not a Virginia Democrat.
• Creigh Deeds has been the most successful fundraiser in more regions of the state than his opponents. Traditionally, Virginia has been a low-turnout state in primaries - meaning party activists usually determine the nominee. That base admires Deeds and the fact that he's been a Democratic team player for years. Since we have an open primary, some independents and moderate Republicans (who are uncomfortable with right wing Bob; but they'll be there for him if McAuliffe is the nominee) may vote. Deeds has support in both groups and that may provide just the edge necessary in a tight vote split three ways.

June 9 seems so far away. And, so close.

By the numbers

The four gubernatorial candidates released their fundraising numbers for the period from January 1 to March 31 and to nobody's surprise they racked up some big numbers. A total of $7.8 million was raised during the period.

Terry McAuliffe raised over half of the total, $4.2 million, with a whopping 82% from out-of-state donors.

Senator Creigh Deeds, who was restricted from fundraising for about half the period because the General Assembly was in session, raised $600,000 with nearly all, 93%, coming from in-state donors.

Brian Moran raised $800,000 with 90% coming from in-state donors.

While one can applaud McAuliffe's fundraising prowess, you have to admit the other two candidates have people power. Those in-state donors and their families will actually show up and be voting in the primary. McAuliffe big bucks may not translate to votes on June 9 - in fact, they may work against him if Virginia Democrats get the feeling (already have the feeling) that he's buying the nomination.

On the Republican side, Bob McDonnell raised $2.2 million with 62% coming from out-of-state. 

No pecking in the Valley grist?

The Democratic gubernatorial candidates have agreed to a series of five debates, but not one is in the Shenandoah Valley or even very close to the 6th District.

The campaigns of Creigh Deeds, Brian Moran, and Terry McAuliffe announced yesterday that the candidates will debate five times around the Commonwealth - April 19 in Williamsburg, April 23 in Hampton, April 28 in Danville, April 29 in Blacksburg, and May 19 in Annandale. Details and formats of the debates are still being debated. They've also agree to several joint appearances - again, none in the Valley.

Nearly a dozen local Democratic committees in the Shenandoah Valley, led by Rockingham and Harrisonburg, had been working for a couple months to bring the candidates to a forum/debate at JMU. Apparently they've been stiffed. A quick glance at the locations shows the first two debates only about 20 miles apart while voters in big regions of the state, including the Shenandoah Valley and central Virginia, are left to read about it in the newspaper.

It is interesting that areas in which Senator Creigh Deeds is best known, the Valley and Charlottesville, will not host a debate. Could it be the Moran and McAuliffe campaigns were a bit chicken about giving Creigh the podium in front of a friendly home crowd? Cluck!

The primary is June 9. There is plenty of opportunity within the schedule and time before the primary for the campaigns to agree to a couple more debates in other areas of the state. Lots of Democrats hope they will do it!

Petition race

Terry McAuliffe became the first Democratic gubernatorial candidate to file petitions for the June 9 primary. He filed 17,243 signatures with the State Board of Elections yesterday. Jody Wagner filed 17,858 signatures for lieutenant governor. It is a bit of "race" to file first - which should earn McAuliffe and Wagner top spots on the ballot and a bit of publicity this week.

To qualify for the ballot, candidates have to secure at least 10,000 valid signatures of registered voters with at least 400 in each of the state's 11 congressional districts. Some observers think the top spot on the ballot is worth one-half to one percent in the vote - something I personally discount for the top of the ticket with three well known candidates. It may be more valuable to Wagner in the lieutenant governor contest where candidates are not nearly so well known to primary voters.

Later in the day, Brian Moran submitted 16,928 signatures. Creigh Deeds is expected to submit petitions in the next week. Wagner and Jon Bowerbank have been in the lieutenant governor race the longest, giving them an advantage over late entries Pat Edmonson and Michael Signer in the tedious signature gathering process. While both should have their petition drives finished by April 10, it is possible one will not make the deadline. Why am I thinking of  Emmett Hanger?

Moran visits the 'Burg

Except for a few patrons at the door of the public library, Harrisonburg's Main St. was mostly deserted with a cold wind. But at Clementine's, the mood upstairs was festive with a lively younger crowd. Downstairs is a small bar and large rustic meeting room with sofas and chairs and local art that give it a feel of a living room complete with a large TV. The owners make this inviting space available to a variety of groups - it has become a casual meeting place for a variety of progressive groups like the local Democrats and the Sierra Club.

Clementine's is an important part of the renaissance of the once near-dead downtown. Thirty years ago there was Advance Auto, an A&N Store, Whetzel Seed Co., and a Woolworth's along with furniture, shoe, and clothing stores. Those that didn't die moved to the Valley Mall area or down Rt. 11. For a while, the only thing that attracted me to court square was Jess's Lunch - if you've been there you know what I'm talking about; if not, you should go for a dog and the cultural experience. Now downtown boasts several restaurants, Court Square Theater, small museums and historical attractions. Glad to see the new energy.

Last night nearly 60 people filled the room to meet gubernatorial candidate Brian Moran. He arrived just after the starting time and began shaking hands and taking time to chat with every person. Since the event was hosted by the JMU Democrats, about half the crowd were probably not able to buy a beer - but one young man was celebrating his 21st! Also spotted were House of Delegates candidates Greg Marrow (25th) and Gene Hart (26th), and Harrisonburg Mayor Kai Degner, the state's youngest mayor.

With the frontpage of his website scrolling pictures behind him, Moran talked about clean and green energy, saying NO to a coal-fired generator at Surry, improving health care for all Virginians, job creation, and much more. In response to a question about I-81, Moran expressed strong support for rail as the long term solution. On another question about redistricting, Moran said as Governor he'd make sure there was bipartisan (or did he say nonpartisan?) review of the districts. He praised Senator and gubernatorial candidate Creigh Deeds who has been the strongest legislative proponent of creating a bipartisan redistricting commission.

Moran stumbled a bit on a student's question about a redefinition of the triggerman rule. Senator Obenshains' SB 961 expands the death penalty by allowing accessories before the fact and others indirectly involved in capital crimes to be eligible for the death penalty. Moran expressed support for the death penalty for the most heinous crimes, but seemed a bit confused about the bill and finally said he wasn't familiar with the legislation from this session. He recovered a bit to talk about the principle - it sounded like he opposes expansion of the death penalty. BTW, while we are on the topic, contact Governor Kaine and ask him to veto SB 961 its companion HB 2358.

With an audience that likely leans to Creigh Deeds (at least the older birds), Brian Moran connected. He spoke about how competing in the primary has forced him to focus on issues and and people while sharpening his positions and words. It is clear Brian Moran has done just that!

More at the Daily News-Record where I shamelessly "borrowed" the pic.

Big doin's at the J-J Dinner

Riley has an excellent account of the Democratic Party's Jefferson-Jackson Dinner on his blog, Blue Ridge Data. Check it out.

Dems Playing Chicken

Brian Moran has decided to resign from his seat in the House of Delegates and concentrate on running for Governor of the Commonwealth of Virginia. Governor Tim Kaine has already announced that a special election will be held on January 13 to elect a new Delegate for the 46th District, which includes part of Alexandria and part of Fairfax.

Moran's decision is surprising to some political analysts and others (folks in his district, perhaps) because they didn't see it coming and because of its timing. In the past many candidates running for statewide office have given up their seats in whatever elective office they held in order to run for the higher office. It has even become a bit of a tradition to do so. But it often it occurs after the candidate has the party's nomination. Brian Moran made the decision before the hens got up.

Beyond that, Moran's calculus is factoring in several advantages:

• Legislators are prohibited from fundraising during the session of the General Assembly. By opting out now, Moran can solicit all the funds he wants during a time when he'd have been "blacked out." Moran must figure Terry McAuliffe will seriously challenge him for those dollars, especially out of NOVA. Senator Creigh Deeds will be on on the fundraising sidelines for the duration of the session.
• While Senator Deeds is committed to his duties in Richmond, Moran can join (well, not actually) McAuliffe on the campaign trail across the state. We'll see him speaking to civic clubs and local Democratic groups and attending ribbon cuttings. Time is money. Money is time, I guess.
• Perhaps Moran heard McAuliffe's comment last week about his opponents being "stuck in the legislature." Stuck on fundraising? Stuck on old ideas? Stuck because McAuliffe sees himself above it all?
• Some pundits think Moran has made a good decision by getting out of the General Assembly in what looks like a tough year. Difficult votes on the budget and other issues will be cast. Republicans will undoubtably put forth bills designed to put Democrats in difficult positions. According to these pundits, Moran can take the high road while avoiding controversy. Flip side - is Moran being a chicken? Will Deeds show leadership by taking on the tough issues? Will Deeds make news while Moran seems impotent?

Clearly, Brian Moran thinks Terry McAuliffe is running (so does just about everybody else) and that McAuliffe will challenge him for NOVA dollars and votes. Moran wants to take McAuliffe head on in battling for money and time. 

If you, like me, think Senator Deeds is refusing to chicken out by meeting his commitments to his constituents and the state by sticking it out and tackling the very tough issues... perhaps you'd like to send him a few bucks now since he can't raise any during session.

But, forgetting politics for a minute, how about those Richmond Spiders!

Counting kernels

According to reports, Senator Creigh Deeds, a candidate for the Democratic nomination for Governor, said Republican Bob McDonnell was "unfit to be Governor." A Deeds' spokesman elaborated by describing McDonnell as being part of the hard-right ideology and partisanship that characterized the administration of Jim Gilmore.

Deeds is in a tight race for the nomination against Brian Moran and Terry "exploring a possible run" McAuliffe. According to a new Rasmussen poll, Senator Deeds has the highest favorability ratings among Virginia Democrats with 55% giving him a "favorable," including 23% who had "very favorable" view of the Senator. The other Democrats were close, with McAuliffe garnering a 52% "favorable" and Moran 48%.

The poll shows close head-to-head match ups between each of the Democrats and McDonnell. One advantage for the Republican is his early strength among unaffiliated voters who prefer him to any of the Democrats This is likely due to him being the only Republican on the block while the Democrats, who are still being generally polite to each other, are beginning to take off the gloves. I predict many of these unaffiliated voters will come home to roost when the Democrats hatch a nominee.

The poll is interesting, but let's get real for a moment. We're 11 months out. Virginians are election-weary and more focused on the economy, hanging on to their jobs, the holidays, President-elect Obama, and a million other things than they are on the gubernatorial race. Democrats have 2.5 candidates angling for the June primary. McDonnell is scurrying around the state trying in vain to make news. The state budget is in free fall. 

Yeah, the poll makes for interesting reading and its findings have a little something for everybody. But, stay tuned... those 11 months promise a lot of cracked eggs.

Playing chicken

The Virginia GOP met over the weekend at a very high priced coop, The Homestead, in Bath County. As expected, Jeff Frederick held on to his chairmanship, but that certainly doesn't mean all the hens are happy. The internal divisions remain sharp as some activists wonder if the divisive and often abrasive young chair can pull the party together in time for the 2009 elections. As Phil Cox, campaign manager for presumptive gubernatorial nominee Bob McDonnell said, “We can keep doing what we’re doing and we can keep losing.”

Apparently, there was no agreement on Frederick's "Statement of Republican Principles" that all candidates would have to sign to win party support. It sounds like a "loyalty oath" that would likely demand adherence to Frederick's and the ultra-conservatives' views. Hard to know exactly what the document includes and who supports or doesn't support it as the executive committee met behind closed doors.

Meanwhile, there was grousing about the cheap breakfast of bagels and cream cheese, blame for George W. Bush, the media, and others for Gilmore's crushing defeat, and conservative bloggers tilting the table for their guy for A.G., Ken Cuccinelli.

~~~~~

To the east in Charlottesville, that liberal hatchery, the Democratic Party of Virginia was meeting with a far more festive atmosphere. Announcements of inaugural events, smiles, cheers, pats on the back were all the order of the day.

Democrats are blessed with three (or two??) candidates for Governor. Creigh Deeds got moderate applause when he was introduced to speak, and some people had buttons for Brian Moran. Brian stayed in NOVA to attend a family function and was represented at the podium by a surrogate. Terry McAuliffe, who claims he is only exploring a run and will make a decision in early January, also spoke. For now, at least, everyone was friendly and spoke no evil of an opponent. But on NBC29 News a few rotten eggs were thrown when McAuliffe commented that the other two seemed "stuck in the legislature." Detractors called McAuliffe a "carpetbagger," said the DNC didn't make progress until it got rid of "his sorry fanny." A party activist from central Virginia urged McAuliffe to "go away." Cluck, Cluck- there will be broken eggs before we get to the June primary.

By the time the candidates for Lt. Governor, Jody Wagner and Jon Bowerbank, addressed the Democrats, folks were getting ready to wrap up the meeting - so their comments were short. Wagner seemed to have broad support in the room and many learned of her popcorn business, Jody's Popcorn. A blog named Coarse Cracked Corn is clearly impressed! There are rumors (and winks) that the state chair, Richard Cranwell, is considering jumping into the race. That might make for an interesting winter and spring as Wagner has already picked up a number of influential endorsements from Democrats.

Also speaking was candidate for Attorney General, John Fishwick, While many Democrats have heard of him, few know much about him. Vivian Page's blog takes a closer look.

Recited by various speakers were the stats from the election, many of which we've all heard before. First time Virginia has gone blue in a presidential race in 44 years, first time we had two Democratic Senators since the early 70s... the long list of accomplishments of '08 is indeed impressive (and depressing to GOP birds). A few other interesting tidbits - Mark Warner carried all but six localities (a couple of them here in the Valley). Obama improved upon Kerry's percentages in almost every locality. Several Democratic congressional candidates raised more money in their races than Jim Gilmore was able to raise for a statewide race.

On to '09 and kicking the right wing GOP out of one of their last roosts for blocking progress in Virginia - the House of Delegates.

Full Nest

Democratic gubernatorial candidate Terry McAuliffe visited the Waynesboro Democratic Committee last night as part of his statewide tour exploring a run for the Governor's Mansion. He told the party faithful that his rise in politics is similar to Mark Warner's. McAuliffe pointed to his experience in business and nationwide, indeed worldwide, contacts to attract businesses to the commonwealth. There's more in the Augusta Free Press.

For the nomination, McAuliffe is taking on Senator Creigh Deeds and Delegate Brian Moran. Deeds, who represents a district running from Bath Co. through Rockbridge Co. and across the mountains to Charlottesville, is well known to 6th District Democrats and should enjoy a strong base of support in the region. Deeds just picked up the support of Senator Chap Peterson of Fairfax Co. who is hosting a campaign event for him.

The endorsements are flying and some spurs are coming out as this contest heats up. Since he's also from NOVA, McAuliffe's entry probably threatens Moran more than Deeds, but any time there is a 3-way contest all sorts of things can happen. Feathers may fly at the DVPV quarterly meeting in Charlottesville the first weekend of December!!

Thanks but no thanks, Terry

Terry McAuliffe, the former DNC chair and advisor to Hillary Clinton, has filed papers to set up a committee exploring a run for Governor of Virginia. McAuliffe says he'll tour the state over the next two months to assess his prospects. Senator Creigh Deeds and Delegate Brian Moran are already in the race.

I say, "thanks but no thanks, Terry." You may live in Virginia but you aren't really a Virginian. Creigh and Brian are well steeped in everything Virginia.... issues, policy, facts, and figures. You, Terry, are clueless. I've heard you speak and it was truly inspiring... but you are not the right guy, right now, for Governor.

Terry, take your tour. Virginia is a beautiful state. Have fun. Then withdraw and let Virginia Democrats nominate a candidate who can continue the tradition of a well-managed state government.

Good Deeds in Staunton

State Senator Creigh Deeds was greeted by over 80 enthusiastic supporters at White Star Tavern for lunch yesterday. The boisterous crowd finally settled down to lunch and to listen to Creigh's talk about the values he brings from his Bath County roots and his answers to questions about transportation, education, gerrymandering, and his goals as governor.

Deeds faces Delegate Brian Moran for the party nomination. Moran, who represents Alexandria/Fairfax leads in early fundraising, partly because of high dollar events in NOVA. Deeds points to his statewide name recognition and service in both houses of the General Assembly as key advantages. He lost the '05 race for attorney general by less than 400 votes although is opponent out-spent him by nearly 2-1. Deeds picked up over $6,000 at this lunch on a sunny summer day in a political season in which voters are more focused on the national election - that ain't chicken feed.

While the crowd was mostly Democratic, there were a number of business and professional men and women you'd see mostly in the GOP flock or as solo birds. At least one high dollar donor to Goodlatte was present. Creigh has always been able to work across party lines and has electoral appeal to many independents and some Republicans. A strong argument for his nomination - that ain't chicken litter.

Coverage in The News Virginian and on NBC29. For some reason The News Leader was a dead duck although their offices were just a short walk away - not uncommon for the unpredictable paper.

Peck. Peck.

Good eggs - good Deeds

Lost in the General Assembly gridlock over transportation are two bills by Senator Creigh Deeds (D-Bath) that passed the Senate and deserve to pass the House of Delegates. SB 6012 offers tax credits for businesses that provide flex schedules for employees. SB 6013 provides similar credits for businesses that encourage telecommuting. 

Deeds has announced his candidacy for governor and ideas like these illustrate creative approaches that help solve problems. But, will House Republicans want a Democratic gubernatorial candidate taking credit for this legislation? Or in their political calculus will they supports the Deeds' bills figuring Delegate Brian Moran (D-Fairfax) would be the more formidable statewide candidate?

At any rate, the tax credit approach will probably appeal to the anti-taxers in the House of Delegates. Maybe, just maybe, they'll leave partisan politics out of the equation and pass these bills on their merit.

The Times They Are a Changin'

"I belong to no organized political party. I am a Democrat," said Will Rogers. But, according to articles in the News Leader and the News Virginian, central valley Democrats are are happy and unified group and able to pull off a well-attended event and support a year-round headquarters. They even attracted a couple of big time speakers.

Leslie Byrne, is seeking the Democratic nod to return to Congress from Virginia's District 11. Among many topics, Byrne noted that Bush's exploding federal debt is compromising the U.S. position in trade talks with China, which holds big chunks of that debt. Playing off the "are you better off today" theme of earlier presidential campaigns, she also recalled that when Bush took office there was a budget surplus, milk was $1.89 a gallon and gas $1.49.

Brian Moran, who is expected to announce for Governor later this year, also attended with his wife and young children. Perhaps that is why he focused on education -  pre-K, K-12, and higher ed on his remarks. Moran drew laughter when he said scientific research had shown the value of pre-K, and "we are the party that believes in science."

According to reports, there was a undercurrent of buzz about the upcoming local caucuses and the contest between Sam Rasoul and Drew Richardson. Rasoul was out of the state attending a wedding, but had several staffers present chatting with the crowd. Richardson attended and talked with a number of folks. But, it was all smiles with none of the barbs found on the blogs. Very importantly, people talked more about their pride in being a Democrat and about the great food than about anything that divides them.

Just a couple weeks ago Augusta Democrats attracted Senator Creigh Deeds to a breakfast fundraiser. Deeds has already announced his run for Governor.

Pecking around the valley, it seems the Democrats are gathering coarse cracked corn while the squabbling Republicans are fighting over a shrinking bag of laying mash. The times they are a changin'.