Sending out an S.O.S.

The American Legislative Exchange Council (ALEC) is sending out an S.O.S. to radical right wing bloggers to save its scrawny ass. Facing the loss of an increasing number corporate sponsors and exposure from the usually lame MSM, ALEC is clearly hurting. PRWatch exposed ALEC's blogger training at the Heritage Foundation (another Koch brothers beneficiary):

ALEC Director of External Relations Caitlyn Korb spoke yesterday at a Heritage Foundation "Bloggers Briefing," begging conservative bloggers for help while prepping "a very aggressive campaign to really spread the word about what we actually do." Korb appears to be a new ALEC employee who recently worked for the Cato Institute. Both ALEC and Cato have received funding from Koch family foundations. The Heritage Foundation is an ALEC member.

Today, at a luncheon hosted by the Augusta and Staunton Democratic Committees, Delegate David Toscano and Senator Creigh Deeds briefly touched on ALEC's influence in the Virginia General Assembly. Each man noted that ALEC has recently removed previously public information from their website. Delegate Toscano said that he'd found some bills that were clearly modeled on ALEC's draft legislation. But, neither seemed to have first-hand knowledge with Deeds noting that "none of the legislators with whom I associate have attended their conferences...." Well, I didn't really expect either of these guys to have direct relations with ALEC, but many Valley Republicans are roosting with ALEC on a regular basis.

Along with the Citizen's United case, super pacs, and voter suppression laws ALEC threatens the very roots of our democracy by separating citizens from a meaningful say in their government. As I proclaimed in an earlier post, it is everyone's duty to stay informed and follow ALEC's  subverting and corrupting influence. If you patronize companies that support ALEC let them know your strong disapproval and take your business elsewhere. Sign PROGRESS|VA's petition to send a message to legislators to stand with constituents rather than ALEC. Join with Common Cause and the national campaign to expose the corrupting influence of ALEC.

Around here, when all the turkeys are removed from the poultry house the doors and windows are opened to allow breezes and sunlight to cleanse the fowl environment. That's exactly what we must do with the American Legislative Exchange Council - cleanse the foul environment. In politics as on the farm, bright sunlight is the best disinfectant.

More on ALEC at Mother Jones.

UPDATE 4/23/12: The New York Times exposes ALEC in a front page story, "Conservative Nonprofit Acts as a Stealth Business Lobbyist."

Under the cover of darkness

Late on Saturday evening, the Senate and House of Delegates rushed through a 21 page conference report of SB 497, SB 498, and HB 1130 (Senate Finance Committee summary) that brought sweeping changes to the Virginia Retirement System. Passage came within minutes with little discussion and no fiscal impact statement. From early reports (many of which are vague because even those who voted on the bill aren't clear about the impact of all its provisions) it seems the General Assembly is putting the burden of reform on many local and state employees. Some key points -

Employees who are not vested (less than five years service) and those hired after July 1, 2010 will see three changes that will reduce benefits -

• The multiplier used to compute benefits will be reduced to 1.65% from 1.70%,
• The cost-of-living-adjustment will be capped at 3% rather than 5%,
• Average Final Compensation will be based on the average of the highest five years instead of the current three years.

Employees with currently less than 20 years of service who retire before age 65 will have to wait until that age for any cost-of-living-adjustment.

Beginning January 1, 2014 new hires will have a pension system that is part defined benefit (with 1% multiplier) and part defined contribution. The employee will pay 4% of salary into the defined benefit portion and 1% into the defined contribution portion. The employer will match up to 3.5%.

It appears there are no changes for those who are currently retired nor for those with 20+ years of service.

According to the Virginia Education Association, teachers as well as state and local employees will pay more and get less in benefits -

The Joint Legislative and Audit Commission’s actuarial analysis indicates that a 60-year-old teacher making the average teacher salary will receive $9,129 less in annual benefit if they make the minimum required contribution and $874 less if they make the maximum contribution. In short, future teachers will pay more to get less.

Senator Creigh Deeds explained in a recent email newsletter why he voted against the VRS bills -

I am concerned that we are imposing on local governments a mandate with an unknown cost. I asked pointed questions during the briefing about the effect of the plans on retirement benefits and about the cost to local governments and did not receive answers that quieted my concern. I am also concerned that we are providing a disincentive for people to work in public service. It is important that we not only maintain trust with those people who are already vested in VRS (and these bills do not affect those people who are vested), but that we provide an incentive for highly qualified and talented people to come to work in public service. The bottom line is that there were too many unanswered questions for me on all of these bills.

Senator Deeds went on to state that the best way to restore VRS is to "simply pay into the system what the trustees propose" and what actuaries say is prudent.

Over many years the General Assembly and governors have intentionally underfunded VRS and used the money for other pet projects. The result is a retirement system having $24 billion in unfunded liability and falling below the sound benchmark of 80% funded. Now our "citizen legislators" want to balance the books on the backs of many state employees, local employees, teachers, law enforcement offices, and judges. And because of the rush job on these bills they can't even tell us the effects on the fund's viability or  on hiring and retaining a qualified workforce to carry out core services of the Commonwealth.

Even retirees and those with 20+ years of service, who apparently are held harmless by these bills, should remain vigilant. With so many unknowns and inadequate funding their benefits could be in jeopardy when the 2013 legislature convenes.

Happy New Year

Everybody has their lists of this and that... best of, worst of, favorite this or worst that. So, what the Hell, I might as well do the same thing. So, here goes and who really cares....

Most significant day of the year (also the decade and since January 1, 1863) - the inauguration of Barack Obama as President of the United States of America.

Best album/CD of the year - Bruce Springsteen's Working on a Dream.

Most encouraging economic sign of the year - investments are up over 20% from the crappy Bush economy. I hope the improvements on Wall St. soon find their way to Main St.

Best beer (if price is no object) - Sierra Nevada Pale Ale.

Pet peeve #1 - Staunton's systematic plan to write speeding tickets... unlike most cities that step speed limits down, entering Staunton means going from 55 to 35, right now!

Biggest Shenandoah Valley political surprise - Delegate Chris Saxman announces he won't seek reelection.

Biggest Virginia political disappointment - Creigh Deeds would have made a great governor.

Best beer (when money is tight) - Pabst Blue Ribbon.

Best friend - My wife.

Best four-legged friend - Tucker. Heaven goes by favor; if it went by merit, you would stay out and your dog would go in. ~Mark Twain

Pet Peeve #2 - Giving money to a charity only to be besieged within days by calls and emails wanting more.

Must see TV - Toss up between The Daily Show and Colbert Report. I DVR and watch 'em both.

Best VA sports news - the firing of Al Groh and hiring of Mike London.

And in national sports - the Green Bay Packers are back in the playoffs.

Pet peeve #3 - drivers on cell phones.

Biggest national political disappointment - Republicans.

Best Christmas gift - a turntable. Burn the old vinyl to CD's.

Biggest misrepresentation of American history - Tea Parties.

Feel free to add your own bests, worsts, ugliest, favorites.... in a comment. You could even say this is the best (or worst) blog! Whatever. Happy New Year. May 2010 be great!

Voter turnout

On election day I came home for lunch and tuned into the noontime news on a couple stations and checked The News Leader and a couple other newspaper websites. Though mostly anecdotal, the reports were brimming about the number of people at the polls and the high voter turnout. Later in the afternoon, similar "stories" about good turnout were posted on several news websites. I got a call from a family member in NOVA about the lines at the polling place.

Turns out, reports of high turnout were greatly exaggerated. With beautiful fall weather on Tuesday, 1,973,971 voters, or just under 40% of those registered, went to the polls. That compares unfavorably (especially when you figure the electorate has grown) to 2005 when slightly over 2 million voters, or 45% cast ballots. In 1985 when major flooding affected the western areas of the state, the turnout was 53%. In short, turnout in 2009 was the lowest for a gubernatorial race in 40 years. What is obvious is that the Republican base was much more motivated to vote, while many Democrats must have spent the day basking in the warm sunshine.

Creigh Deeds did well with African-American voters who went to the polls, getting almost 93% of their votes. But, African-Americans sat this one out compared to 2008 and the 2005 gubernatorial race. Turnout among African-American voters declined by more than 10% when compared to 2005. Apparently President Obama's coattails are pretty short when he is not on the ballot.

Political parties know that GOTV is essential to winning, but the dilemma is how to actually turn out voters committed to the party's candidates. A unified and hungry Virginia (and NJ) GOP won the GOTV ground game big time resulting in solid wins. Democrats, with a more muddled message and less unified electorate, lost the battle not only for independents, but in getting their own base to the polls. In the special congressional election in NY, it was the GOP who was divided... and lost.

More info on voter turnout at the State Board of Elections and Sabato's Crystal Ball.

Pickin' Up the Pieces

The morning after. Sound thumpin' for the Dems locally, across Virginia, and in New Jersey. Pundits will offer all sorts of reasons and justifications over the days and weeks ahead. Today I will be gathering yard and field signs. We'll be taking it in for recycling and hope you'll do the same... the cardboard signs, as well as the corrugated plastic and sleeves can all be recycled. That's too much BS to pile in our landfills.

While I'll admit surprise at some of the margins, the outcomes of the races are not much of a surprise in to anyone paying attention over the past weeks. The Valley typically runs 65-70% red and the outcome in the House races confirms this advantage continues. If GOP House candidates hadn't campaigned at all, they'd still have easily won.

A least one local whiner has bemoaned the nomination (actually he used his blog to undermine the ticket since the primary) of Creigh Deeds, believing that Terry McAuliffe would have brought energy to the Democratic ticket... I doubt the outcome would have been much different. From my perch, McAuliffe would have divided Democrats and united Republicans even more... if that is possible. True, the Deeds campaign stumbled and missed opportunities, but the stars were aligned for a Republican win in Virginia in 2009 and only major mistakes by McDonnell and friends could have changed the result. Have you heard the rumor that Terry is hinting at a run in 2013?

Actually, the GOP win in NJ is much more surprising than their wins in Virginia. The Garden State is (was?) deep blue while Virginia, despite last year's win by Obama, is at best reddish purple. Virginia voters are greatly impacted by the blowback from across the Potomac... millions of dollars of ads on health care, climate change, card check and so forth affect NOVA and beyond (we get D.C. stations here in the Valley). The net result was a growing frustration with all things government that was a drag on gubernatorial candidates seen as incumbents or surrogates for incumbents.

Running contrary to the anti-government mood was the passage of the meals tax in Rockingham County. The tax will only affect restaurants outside of town limits and 100% of funds raised support schools. Proponents were able to sell the tax as a way to avoid raising real estate taxes and as a tax that would be paid by others such as travelers along I-81. So, a tax was sold as anti-tax?

Looking ahead, several things come to mind. Virginia's budget will present very real challenges to McDonnell, the General Assembly, and to all Virginians. Hopefully, bipartisan solutions can be found. Just as the Republicans used our wonderful system of checks and balances to block some of Governor Tim Kaine's initiatives, the Democratic Virginia Senate will likely block McDonnell if he tries to shift General Fund dollars from schools to build roads.

Ironically, Governor-elect McDonnell's future is now closely linked to President Obama's. The success of each depends on a recovering economy and job creation. For the good of everyone, we should all hope they are successful in that endeavor.

Creigh Deeds to Visit the Queen City

Gubernatorial candidate Creigh Deeds will be in Staunton for two events this week:

• Thursday, August 27 at 7:00 PM rally in front of Mill Street Grill (in case of rain at Elder Antique Auto).
• Friday, August 28 at 9:00 AM a media event at Black Dog Bikes on S. Lewis Street.

Please join Creigh at both events!!

Backwards Bob

Some Deeds supporters in the Shenandoah Valley are less than happy that Creigh Deeds has told the truth about Bob McDonnell's crusade to ban all abortions, even in cases of rape or incest:

They want to know why bring this hot button issue up now? Why bring it up at all?

Earlier this summer Bob McDonnell spent several hundred thousand dollars on TV ads designed to reshape his image, to rebrand himself, to mislead Virginia voters. In those slick commercials, McDonnell was portrayed as a moderate consensus builder, open to all ideas, and willing to work across party lines. Using shades of blue, Taliban Bob seemingly attempted to paint himself almost as a Democrat. In June, with the Democrats focused on their primary, McDonnell was able to use the power of TV to fabricate an image of him as a moderate that gave him a midsummer bump in some polls.

The reality is, of course, quite different - Bob McDonnell is a hard right Republican with an agenda sharply in contrast to the majority of Virginians and most folks right here in the Shenandoah Valley. McDonnell has again and again introduced legislation to limit and even ban all abortions, including those in the horrible circumstances of rape and incest. Creigh Deeds, the actual common sense moderate in the gubernatorial race, decided to call the weasel out on his misrepresentations on the issue of a woman's right to choose.

Most Virginians support a fair, balanced, and common sense approach to reproductive rights. One that reduces abortion by making education, factual information, and birth control choices available to all women of child bearing age. An approach that ultimately keeps big government out of personal matters and leaves the decision to the woman, her doctor, and her spiritual advisor.

Creigh Deeds will continue calling Bob McDonnell out for speaking out of both sides of his mouth by talking like a moderate in public while preaching to the right wing firebrands in private. For his lies and misrepresentations on a host of other issues - public education, transportation, public safety, jobs, vouchers, and much more.

That's why this issue. That's why now. Taliban Bob had the stage to himself during the campaign's opening act and he put on a good show pretending to be something he isn't. During Act II, Act III, and all the way to Election Day Creigh Deeds, Democrats, and many Republicans will be letting folks know about Bob McDonnell's filthy lies and the man behind the mask.

Sorry if the issue Creigh raised made you a bit uncomfortable. Sorry if it stirs ups the WASPS in the Valley Family Forum. But, it was time to call out Bob McDonnell for saying different things to different audiences. It it time for all Virginians to know the truth about the real Bob McDonnell. What they'll find in his Pat Robertson, Jeff Frederick, Jim Gilmore tainted past, and in his own record, Virginians won't like one bit.

Dog Days of Politics

In these parts it has been a fairly mild early summer with only a few of the hazy, hot, humid days that wilt folks' bodies and souls. We are just now getting into the dog days of summer, that time from July to early September characterized by blazing sun and sultry days made for iced tea or a cold beer. Spent a little time exploring and walking yesterday... for a while I thought the dog days had arrived. The sun was cookin' us and the ball cap soaked with sweat. But, even so, it really only got into the mid 80s and the nights remain in the cool and comfortable lower 60s (if you have AC you don't get the importance of this point).

We seem to be in the dog days of politics too. Gubernatorial candidates Creigh Deeds and Bob McDonnell have been virtually invisible since mid June. Deeds has been consolidating his campaign, calling donors, and shifting from primary to general election mode. McDonnell ran a couple weeks of misleading "look at me, I'm a moderate" ads in areas of the Commonwealth that are typically strong GOP turf. Just how worried is he about the Deeds' appeal in the Shenandoah Valley, central Virginia, and beyond?

The dog days are hot times for House of Delegates candidates. They marched in every July 4 parade they could find and will be shaking hands at lawn parties over the next few weeks. A big one put on by the Bridgewater Volunteer Fire Company is late this week. By the time August arrives, they'll be taking in the county fairs.

Maybe this wouldn't turn out to be especially productive, and I'm sure it runs counter to advice offered by most consultants, but I'd like to see Deeds make "surprise" appearances at a few community events of the dog days. Shake hands, enjoy BBQ and funnel cakes, pump up the local Democratic activists, and hear what is on people's minds. Local TV and newspapers would love it (free advertising) and it would reinforce Deeds' well-deserved reputation as a regular guy who connects with Virginians.

Well, time to brew some tea for today and for a few outside jobs while the air is still cool.

In case you missed it

You may have missed the recent issue of The Hook and its excellent article about Creigh Deeds' victory in the Democratic Primary. The Hook's Lindsay Barnes was at the Omni Hotel for Deeds victory party as the early results came in. Barnes watched as Bob Gibson, executive director of the Sorensen Institute for Political Leadership, followed early returns on a laptop. Deeds was beating McAuliffe and Moran in Northern Virginia - their home turf. "It is over," said Gibson.

Deeds placed much of the credit for his victory on popular Democratic governors and their successes in Richmond:

Whether it was cast in Abingdon or Arlington, Highland or Henrico, or right here in Thomas Jefferson's hometown, Charlottesville, it was a vote to continue the progress we've made under Democratic governors Mark Warner and Tim Kaine.

A companion article at the same link examines the role of the Washington Post endorsement of Deeds, something that drew previous CCC attention.

Anyone who followed his political career, or who has read about Deeds' victory, knows Creigh is a winner and his opponents take him lightly at their own risk. Creigh won elections to the House of Delegates in areas where Republicans have an edge, He survived, even prospered, when the GOP gerrymandered his Senate district. Now he humbled two well-known and well-funded opponents in the primary.

Taliban Bob better be afraid... very afraid.

Stoney joins Deeds campaign

Levar Stoney has joined the gubernatorial campaign of Creigh Deeds as political director. He will be taking a leave of absence as executive director of the Democratic Party of Virginia.

While this news is now about a week old, CCC wants to congratulate Creigh and Levar - this seems like a great matchup. It is also worth noting Levar's Valley connections. Yes, he's been here for many events such as the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Labor Day Banquet and last summer's Paint the Valley Blue celebration at the Frontier Culture Museum in Staunton (pic). Levar is also a JMU grad so he is familiar with the area from his Young Dem days.

Levar credited Virginia Democrats for helping him at DPVA and he looked forward to a Deeds victory in November:

I just wanted to take this opportunity to say thank you for all the help and support you've given me over the last three years with the DPVA. I have learned so much since early 2006 when I came to the Party and it's definitely due to the great Virginia Democrats I get a chance to work with each and every day. This isn't a goodbye because you'll see and hear from me a lot in my new role as Political Director over at Deeds for Virginia. However, since I expect we will elect Creigh the next Governor of Virginia, this is likely my final DPVA correspondence.

I'm sure we'll be seeing more of Levar in Staunton, Harrisonburg, Roanoke, and all across the Valley between now and Election Day. We'll also find him taking an important role in shaping a Deeds administration!

Mike's Primary Wisdom

Although I supported Jody, I thought Mike Signer ran a good campaign, based on ideas, with a long range view to the future. I noted that he ran well in several Valley localities - a fact that I attributed to him making some visits to the area and a dedicated group of GOTV volunteers who made the calls and knocked on doors, posted on blogs, and handed out the literature. Mike also ran well in other rural/small town pockets mostly west of Richmond.

Because he got in the race late and raised only about 1/3 of the dollars that Jody did, Mike was less competitive in the suburban/urban areas where money buys TV, direct mail, staff, and other components of a modern statewide race.

Mike sent out the following email, thanking folks who worked for him and looking at lessons from the campaign. Some of Mike's wisdom:

Now, a few words about our campaign. I began this race as an activist and an advocate, whether on electoral reform, the environment, racial reconciliation, or national security issues. The power of activism and advocacy, of an individual or a group, applying themselves to effect change, motivated this entire campaign.

On the strength of this idea, this campaign received over 60,000 votes. To put this in perspective, four years ago, Leslie Byrne—the Democratic nominee for Lieutenant Governor and someone for whose endorsement I was incredibly grateful—received about 38,000 votes. Turnout was over twice as high this year as in 2005, to be sure, but the fact remains that we must have been offering voters something that excited them to receive such a large number of base votes.

I want to call your attention to those 60,000 votes. I grew up in Arlington, and you might therefore expect that I would have difficulty connecting in rural Virginia. But in fact, some of the most stunning victories we had were spread throughout rural Virginia. In the end, this little, scrappy campaign, which was outspent three to one, won the cities of Bristol (in the 9th Congressional District, at the far corner of Southwest Virginia), Harrisonburg (in the 6th Congressional District, in the Shenandoah Valley), and Martinsville—by over 60% (in the 5th Congressional District, in deep Southside Virginia). Along the way, we also picked up a number of counties, including Halifax, Henry, Lunenburg, and Pittsylvania, and received 40% of the vote in the 5th Congressional District.

These are real victories, and there is a lesson in them.

I believe that what unifies the very different cities of Bristol, Harrisonburg, and Martinsville, and the others areas where we did well, is that they all need something far different from government, and from public officials, than they are getting. Everywhere we won, there was a hunger for a restless, creative spirit from public officials. And this has something to do with the “progressive” campaign we ran.

The idea of progressivism goes back to last century, and it has to do with rooting a philosophy of government in the experience of people’s everyday lives—so it’s immensely practical and focused on working people and their families. Yet progressivism also aims for ideals that are achievable. Barack Obama told the crowd who had nominated him in Denver, citing Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr, “The arc of the moral universe is long, but it bends towards justice.” What he meant was that we are all part of a greater cause, which is to make the world—and Virginia, and our community—a better place.

That’s why I think our campaign, with its focus on the economy and green jobs, the environment/energy connection, veterans’ issues, and strengthening our democracy, including through the restoration of rights, received so many votes despite being outspent by so much. Our message resonated. We had young people and unions, farmers and social justice activists, and rural, suburban, and urban voters excited about a new candidate with a message of taking Virginia to the next level.

For an underdog campaign running against a candidate who very capably secured the support of the vast majority of our Democratic elected officials, I was also gratified, in a few short months, to receive so much “institutional” support. This included the endorsements of dozens of elected officials from across the Commonwealth, five newspapers, over 1,300 donors, including some of Virginia’s major Democratic donors, and almost every Democratic blogger in Virginia.

Jody Wagner, to her great credit, raised over $1.2 million and was able to spend hundreds of thousands of dollars on television ads, by far the most powerful medium in political campaigns. By contrast, with a little over $400,000 raised, we were only able to rely on radio and a single piece of direct mail. As one political consultant told me, our campaign was like “bringing a butter knife to a gunfight.” We watched as candidate after candidate withdrew when faced with the impressive force of Jody Wagner’s campaign.

Yet I decided to stay in the race because I thought the fight was worth fighting and the ideas worth pursuing. And the fact remains that in the areas where our message was able to compete through the mediums we chose and through public events and “earned media,” we saw our message connect.

We didn’t win this time around, but I believe we did influence the field to be more substantive about ideas, to focus more on economic fairness and social justice, and to provide for voters a stronger account of how the Lieutenant Governor could serve the public, rather than just future elections. Along the way, we also saw our nimble, creative campaign influence others—our YouTube “Coffee Breaks,” our policy plans, our emphasis on veterans, and our press statements were all replicated by other statewide campaigns.

A few words about Creigh Deeds, our nominee. Many of you know that I once worked as Creigh’s Legislative Aide. I first met him in December 1996. I had never heard of Bath County before, much less Creigh Deeds. Creigh met me in the morning at a Shoney’s on Broad Street in Richmond. Over a terrific mess of buffet brunch food, I was deeply impressed by the contagious excitement of the young lawmaker and realized that he was someone I’d be proud to work for.

Working for Creigh made a profound impact on me. In the years since, he’s been a mentor and friend and a leader I have watched with great admiration, as he has achieved great results in the House and Senate for thousands of Virginians, whether on jobs, the environment, education, or health care. I also realized then how important it is for Virginia Democrats to have a statewide approach and to focus on the issues and challenges of underserved areas, whether in rural or urban Virginia. I do not think we could have had such a connection throughout rural Virginia had I not worked for Creigh at such a young age.

I think that we are incredibly blessed to have Creigh as our nominee. He will run an incredible campaign focused on bringing the promise of the Warner/Kaine years to all of Virginia and will be a tremendous governor. I’ll do whatever I can to help him throughout this year, and urge you to do the same.

I also want to congratulate Jody again. She'll be a terrific nominee and an even better Lieutenant Governor, and it was an honor to compete with her. I told Jody on Election Night that I’d be very happy to help her in any way I could, and I mean it. I look forward to campaigning with and for her in the weeks and months to come.

I’d like to close with a thought about our democracy. We have a democracy, and it takes the courage, spirit, and dedication of each of us to take care of it. After years of experience in activism and public policy, it was a humbling and exhilarating experience to dive into the electoral side of things.

Elections are rough and tumble affairs. Democratic primary voters take their responsibility to select our leaders seriously, as they should. It was no coincidence that Barack Obama often referred to them “kicking the tires.” I often felt, over the last several months, that I was such a tire. But it was an extraordinary experience to be put through the electoral wringer. Think about what free elections produce—leaders who hopefully have judgment and wisdom, who will ethically and capably bear the people's trust in their responsibility for carrying us through our challenges. As I tweeted on election night, “Watching folks run to vote, soaking wet, through a thunderstorm, I'm humbled yet again by the power of the American idea."

As we turn our attention to the fall, it is clear that Deeds/Wagner/Shannon and all our HoD candidates can learn from the primary. Yep, as the old saying goes, "money is the mother's milk of politics." Money is necessary for all the components of a modern campaign. It was evident in the gubernatorial primary that you don't need the most money, but a candidate does need sufficient money to get the message out.

But, it is equally clear that people power can take a candidate a long way. Folks to knock on doors, to make the calls, to write letters to the editor, to blog, to work at county fairs and town parades, to host candidate meet/greets, to handout literature on Election Day. All these grassroots GOTV activities can make a big difference - in small towns as well as in the sprawling suburbs.

Money + people power = victory. Anything less will mean Taliban Bob in the Executive Mansion and falling short of 51. How will YOU help?

Primary lessons

Academics, pundits, bloggers, and everybody's brother will be analyzing Virginia's gubernatorial primary for the lessons of June 9. So, I may as well throw out a little cracked corn myself.

Money can't buy ya love. Terry McAuliffe had plenty of it. Brian Moran raised a bunch, too. Creigh told me way back in January, when McAuliffe jumped in, that now money would be less of a factor for him. Creigh predicted that McAuliffe and Moran would use their money mostly against each other, saying, "I'll have enough to get my message out and that's all I need...." McAuliffe's money raising prowess got him in the game, but in the end I think it hurt more than helped - Virginia Democrats didn't like the notion that big out-of-state money could buy the nomination.

Ya gotta stand for something. With his long record of service to the Commonwealth, Democrats knew where Creigh was coming from and where he wants to go. We got the sense that with Creigh was all about Virginia's future. With McAuliffe the message was more muddled - there was always the suspicion it was more about Terry's future and the Governor's Mansion was a stepping stone to somewhere else.

Sometimes endorsements matter. I generally don't think newspaper endorsements move that many voters. But, the Washington Post's endorsement of Deeds seems to have been a turning point in this race. NOVA voters, who are often more focused on D.C. than on Richmond, have an interesting connection with the Post - many seem to rely on it for good advice on what's happening down state. The endorsement, back by solid reasoning, explained Deeds to them terms that made it clear he wasn't some hillbilly from the backwoods and why he was the best choice for Fairfax, et al. As the news about the Post's endorsement rippled across the state, it reinforced every part of Deeds' message.

Its the Old Dominion, after all. Steeped in political tradition, there is a Virginia way of doing things. It is virtually impossible to imagine someone moving to the Commonwealth just to run for statewide office. That may fly for New York, but not here. Yes, I know McAuliffe has a home in Virginia, but until he showed interest in running for Governor, nobody except his next door neighbor knew that. I guess that old bumper sticker about Virginia not being just a place but a state of mind, sort of sums it up. McAuliffe never sold us on being a Virginian. Creigh's Virginia roots, nourished in Bath County and honed in Charlottesville, run deeper than either of his opponents.

Sound and fury vs slow and steady. Creigh has been in Virginia public life for two decades. He's steadily moved from local office to the House of Delegates and the Senate of Virginia. Not flashy, but constant progress on issues, on finding solutions, on serving constituents. McAuliffe entered the race with all kind of flash - I recall one blogger/online news writing something like "...when did I know I'd support Terry McAuliffe? From the moment he walked into the room...." I'll admit McAuliffe can work a crowd and capture the attention of a room - I've seen it firsthand and he is impressive. Most, but not all, Virginia Democrats got over the initial infatuation and came back to Creigh, who they knew and trusted.

Virginia Democrats like hard work. All three candidates are hard working guys, but I think Creigh helped himself by keeping his seat in the Virginia Senate. Yes, he gave up two months of fundraising, but staying in the legislature reinforced his reputation of being a guy who works hard for constituents and the state - traits we want in the governor. Hey, didn't right wing Bob resign as attorney general??

Virginia Democrats like winning. The last few years have been like the wonder years for Virginia Democrats. Winning is so much more fun than losing. And the government works better too. As June 9 approached many Democrats asked the question - who can win in November? Most answered Creigh Deeds - he'd have the best chance to unite the party after a primary battle and, come November, he'd pull in independents and perhaps some moderate Republicans turned off by right wing Bob. Moran never made that sale. McAuliffe, with the Clinton connection, was his own negative advertising on this one.

Deeds river runs wide and deep. Creigh's victory is impressive not just because of his 50% win over two well-known and well-funded opponents, it is astonishing that he won every congressional district except the 3rd (Richmond through parts of Hampton Roads) where McAuliffe beat him by 2%. His biggest percentage was in his own 6th District (70%) but he did very well in many others, often besting his nearest opponent by double digits. Creigh won big where expected, but also beat Moran and McAuliffe on their home turf.

What primary? With statewide turnout of 319,000 or about 6.3% (best was 11.7% in the 8th District), it is clear that the idea of a primary hasn't quite caught on in the Old Dominion. Just not part of our tradition - yet. That's too bad, because it is clearly the more democratic process. But, 2009 is better turnout than the June 2005 primary that was a dual primary - the GOP had a primary for governor and attorney general while the Dems had one for lieutenant governor (there were also House primaries). Another way to look at it - turnout for the Democratic nominating process topped the turnout for the Republican nominating process by over 309,000. So, which party is more connected to the people?

Don't give up your day job. I fully expect Moran and McAuliffe to work pretty hard for Creigh. Yeah they are smarting from the shellacking, but it is also in their interests for Deeds and Democrats to be successful this November. McAuliffe's life is all about politics and he'll reemerge on the national stage (doubt he'll test Virginia waters again) and a McAuliffe-aided win will restore some polish. Moran, who I think has much to offer Virginia, is in a different situation. Brian gave up his day job in the House of Delegates to concentrate on the campaign, so now he has no natural base from which to launch a comeback. I have no doubt he'll find a way, and the starting point is being a good soldier for Deeds and the other Democratic campaigns.

Okay, enough of this for now. Was going to make a comment or two about the lieutenant governor race (like how did Signer do so well in a few Valley localities) but that will have to wait or not happen at all. Just had to get a neighbor's spooked cow out of the yard (soft soil = deep divots) and back with her calf. Need to brew some iced tea and cool off after the exercise. A big load of recycling to take before the storms gear up this afternoon. Cluck.

Deeds Interview

Since he represents the area in the Virginia Senate, Creigh Deeds is no stranger to the folks at NBC29. He joined them for a live interview the evening after his big win in the Democratic primary. I'm having a little trouble with the embed, so here is the link to the pop up video. It is a good one!

Primary Day

VOTE!

Tomorrow is primary day  in the Commonwealth. Virginia is a state with many traditions, but voting in a primary isn't one of them. Although it is an open primary - meaning anyone of any party affiliation or none at all can vote - turnout will probably be in single digits in most areas of the state. Not so good, but it does mean that every single vote is even more important. Which is why I voted early-absentee since I'll be returning home tomorrow and one delay could mean I'd be too late to vote.

So, get up with the chickens tomorrow and do your duty - VOTE. And while you are at it, vote for CCC's endorsed candidates:

Creigh Deeds for Governor. While I don't always agree with the News Leader, they have an excellent editorial endorsing Senator Deeds.

Jody Wagner for Lt. Governor.

Greg Marrow for District 25 House of Delegates.

To learn more about the CCC endorsements, check out the most recent posts.

Yep, tomorrow's primary will likely have pitiful turnout. Still, the primary will totally blow out of the barnyard the number of participants the GOP had at their recent convention, a gathering that selected the most right wing ticket possible. So while many, myself included, bemoan the lack of participation in primaries, they encourage more public debate of candidates and issues, they hone the eventual nominee's skills and organization, and they are fundamentally more democratic - both small "d" and big "D."

From a distance

As you can tell from the photo, I'm watching the closing week of the campaign from a distance. No, not vacationing although the location is certainly famous for that and many other things. Actually, the 8:00 - 5:00 days are all work, grading AP exams for ETS. But the evenings are fine. Missed a photo opportunity this evening as the jumbo jet with the shuttle riding piggyback cruised at low altitude right down the coast. 

Even while I'm in the state that Bushwhacked us, I'm keeping a close eye online and on my inbox for news about Virginia's Democratic primary. Today's big news came from Public Policy Polling - new numbers are in that show Creigh Deeds pulling ahead in the last weeks of the campaign. According to the poll Creigh Deeds is at 27%, followed by Terry McAuliffe at 24%, and Brian Moran at 22%. The previous poll had McAuliffe at 29% while Deeds and Moran were trailing at 20% each.

Now this is certainly great news, but with six days to go, it is still a jump ball. For one thing, the poll's MoE is ±4.1%. For another thing, there are still a lot of undecideds. 

The poll cites a couple of developments - notably the Washington Post's endorsement of Creigh Deeds and a decline in McAuliffe's support in regions where Moran has run ads attacking him. 

Now the poll doesn't say this, but from where I roost, I'd say there is another factor at play - Democrats are coming back to the Virginia flock. Democrats know Creigh Deeds. He is one of them and has carried the party banner through lean years and the recent blue years. He's steady. He is true blue. At the end of the day, Democrats want a candidate who will be a winner in November and that candidate is Creigh Deeds. One opponent hasn't quite made the sale. The other talks big but we know he is a roll of the dice, and Virginians aren't big on gambling.

The poll also found Jody Wagner leading Mike Signer 27% to 11%. Lots of undecideds there too!

With the race so close, and the future of the Democratic Party and Virginia at stake, it is critical to get out the Deeds vote. Since I've flown the coop, I've already cast my vote for Creigh and Jody and have been reminding family and friends to make voting a priority on June 9. That's your job too - be sure you vote and get others to do the same. If Virginia Democrats turn out, Creigh Deeds will be our nominee and Bob McDonnell will be worried... very worried.

Endorsement - Governor

My endorsement of Creigh Deeds for Governor should come as no surprise to anyone who has been reading CCC for a while. The Deeds badge has been on the site for a couple months and a number of previous posts have praised the work of the Bath County Senator. Anyone who knows me personally is also aware that I've been a consistent supporter of Creigh - my truck has sported a Deeds bumper sticker for six or eight months and I've openly stated my support whenever appropriate and possible. I've attended nearly every Deeds event in the area.

Before explaining my support for Deeds, I will point out that I have lots of respect for Brian Moran. While I hope Creigh gets the nomination, I hope Brian will try again. He has much to offer the people of Virginia. As for the other fellow in the race, I think he'd be a double-shot poison pill for Virginia Democrats - if nominated he will simultaneously divide the party while uniting Republicans. All the money in the world won't overcome that.

So, why the support for Creigh Deeds for Governor? 

First, I've known the man for 12-15 years. He is honest, honorable, caring, smart, hardworking, and a host of other desirable characteristics we too rarely find in our public servants. A Governor Deeds will make Virginians proud.

Second, he is clearly the most immersed in policy and policy making of all of the candidates of either party. He's a bit of a policy wonk, but at the same time is steeped in the practical ins and outs of Richmond politics. Creigh knows the ropes and knows when to yank them hard and when to allow a little slack. He will be a get 'er done Governor.

Third, Creigh Deeds is our absolute best chance to beat reactionary Bob and a state and national GOP desperate for a win in Virginia. Creigh will unite Democrats, attract some moderate suburban Republicans, and pick up a majority of the independents. That is a winning combination for Virginia Democrats - a fact demonstrated by the likes of Warner, Kaine, and Webb.

Join me in voting for Creigh Deeds in the Democratic Primary. Together we'll carry on the tradition of responsive and good government in Virginia.

Creigh Deeds scares the bejesus out of opponents

Gubernatorial candidate Creigh Deeds has gone far beyond anyone's expectations for fundraising. Remember, Deeds kept his seat in the Senate of Virginia to do the people's business. In doing so, he passed up 46 days of fundraising and campaigning while his opponents were stumping and hitting up everyone and their uncle for a donation.

But Deeds surprised everyone, perhaps even the candidate himself, by raising more money in 44 days than he'd raised in the previous six months! He now has $1.2 million cash-on-hand... an astonishing 97% from Virginians. Sure, Terry McAuliffe has raised more... but how much is from out-of-state from people who don't know Virginia or care about our issues?

Creigh has the issues, the Virginia experience, the policy expertise, and the heart to carry on in the Warner/Kaine tradition that has moved Virginia forward. He is the only candidate who can whip RightWingBob in November. But, first he needs to win the June 9 primary. Want to help? Let me tell you where to go! If that isn't your cup of tea, go here to volunteer.

Deeds files petition

Everybody knew Senator Creigh Deeds would be filing his petitions for the gubernatorial primary this week - after all, the deadline is Friday. According to a press release distributed Monday, he actually filed nearly 16,000 signatures late last week. Deeds praised the "tremendous showing of grassroots support." Deeds will be on the ballot along with Terry McAuliffe and Brian Moran for the June 9 primary.

Petition race

Terry McAuliffe became the first Democratic gubernatorial candidate to file petitions for the June 9 primary. He filed 17,243 signatures with the State Board of Elections yesterday. Jody Wagner filed 17,858 signatures for lieutenant governor. It is a bit of "race" to file first - which should earn McAuliffe and Wagner top spots on the ballot and a bit of publicity this week.

To qualify for the ballot, candidates have to secure at least 10,000 valid signatures of registered voters with at least 400 in each of the state's 11 congressional districts. Some observers think the top spot on the ballot is worth one-half to one percent in the vote - something I personally discount for the top of the ticket with three well known candidates. It may be more valuable to Wagner in the lieutenant governor contest where candidates are not nearly so well known to primary voters.

Later in the day, Brian Moran submitted 16,928 signatures. Creigh Deeds is expected to submit petitions in the next week. Wagner and Jon Bowerbank have been in the lieutenant governor race the longest, giving them an advantage over late entries Pat Edmonson and Michael Signer in the tedious signature gathering process. While both should have their petition drives finished by April 10, it is possible one will not make the deadline. Why am I thinking of  Emmett Hanger?