- 2009 will probably break the 2005 record of $41 million. Part of the reason is the GOP desperation for a win in a state trending blue. Another aspect is our odd-year elections, which means Virginia is one of the few games for the big national money. And, don't discount Terry McAuliffe's fundraising prowess.
- Brian Moran does well in his base of NOVA, but in spite of leaving the House of Delegates to focus on his campaign and fundraising, he didn't exactly overwhelm Creigh Deeds who stayed in the Senate and was prohibited from fundraising for a month and a half. I like Brian, but it seems to me this three-way race has kind of left him without a natural statewide base.
- Terry McAuliffe can certainly find the fat wallets, twist the arms, and raise serious money - $4.2 million ain't chicken feed. But, with two-thirds coming from out of state, McAuliffe's fundraising highlights his greatest vulnerability - the perception that he's a national Democrat, not a Virginia Democrat.
- Creigh Deeds has been the most successful fundraiser in more regions of the state than his opponents. Traditionally, Virginia has been a low-turnout state in primaries - meaning party activists usually determine the nominee. That base admires Deeds and the fact that he's been a Democratic team player for years. Since we have an open primary, some independents and moderate Republicans (who are uncomfortable with right wing Bob; but they'll be there for him if McAuliffe is the nominee) may vote. Deeds has support in both groups and that may provide just the edge necessary in a tight vote split three ways.
June 9 seems so far away. And, so close.