Washington food fest

Even while the government is shut down and default threatens, lobbyists make sure they get want they want from their bought and paid for politicians. Guess who picks up the tab?

Tell your congressman and senators to represent us, because corruption is so unAmerican.

Changed tossed in the ditch

Sign the petition. Tell the President we want, we need, a public option.

Looking Backward vs Moving Forward

"Virginia's brightest days lie ahead." That will be true if we elect a pro-business leader like Creigh Deeds who pledges to keep the Commonwealth moving forward with policies like those of Mark Warner. The alternative means a return to the failed economic policies of Jim Gilmore and George Bush.

You can meet Virginia's next Governor in Lexington Democratic HQ/Jeff Price Campaign HQ on Sunday, August 23 from 3:30 to 4:15 PM. The HQ is located at 312 S. Main St. RSVP: 540.464.DEMS

And the winner is...

It was Forbes, then U.S. News, now CNBC. Under the leadership of governors Mark Warner and Tim Kaine Virginia has been recognized a great state for business. If we are continue the successes, it is essential to elect Creigh Deeds as our next governor. Show your support, get your DeedsGear.

Bob's "blue" ads

Earlier I posted that Bob McDonnell's early summer run of TV ads is evidence he is (1) worried about Creigh Deeds and (2) running from his own "raised on Pat Robertson's knee" past.

His overly slick ads been running heavily on Shenandoah Valley stations. Now that alone says something - if Taliban Bob is worried about hanging on to this Republican stronghold, he does have major problems.

After seeing the ad, it is becoming obvious that McDonnell is trying to morph into... hard to believe... a Democrat. And its not just the blue shirt. He, one of the most extreme partisan hacks in Virginia politics, talks about working in a bipartisan fashion and not caring who gets credit. Excuse me, was that ever part of his political persona? McDonnell is the most transparent blue when he talks about making Virginia a good place for business. Democrats have been there, done that, and keep on doing it. Governors Mark Warner and Tim Kaine have led the Commonwealth to #1 rankings as a great state to do business. Most recently Forbes, CNBC, and Pollina Corporate Real Estate all praised the business climate in Virginia. More here and here.

I suppose McDonnell has little choice. Virginia is changing but most Republicans haven't. He has to find some way to leverage independent voters who are increasingly voting Democratic. So, his ad guys are hustling to create a new, and patently false, image. I'm sure those ad guys are smart, but I think they underestimate Virginia voters - who won't buy the lie. The truth about the real Bob McDonnell is too damning to cover up with sound bites.

Virginians know they've had seven years of responsible leadership in the Governor's Mansion. Leadership that has been recognized for running efficient and effective government and creating a good environment for business and job creation. Voters know Creigh Deeds will continue moving Virginia forward with that same brand of common sense leadership.

Still thinking...?

Senator John Edwards (D-Roanoke) says he is "still thinking" about getting into the race for the Democratic nomination for attorney general. Delegate Steve Shannon (D-Fairfax) currently has that race to himself. But, Senator Edwards is also on a list, with 16 others, under consideration for appointment as a judge on the 4th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals. Edwards says he has been encouraged by senators Jim Webb and Mark Warner to seek that appointment by President Barack Obama.

I don't know the timeline for this appointment, but there is a timeline for Senator Edwards to get in the game if he wants to run for attorney general. Petitions to be placed on the primary ballot are due by March 24. We can expect Edwards to say yea or nay to the attorney general contest shortly after the General Assembly adjourns at the end of February.

Predictions

The national presidential popular vote (which doesn't matter except pride and in creating the "mandate") will be Obama 52%, McCain 47%, with 1% split between various minor party candidates. Those candidates aren't really important except in a handful of very close states where it is possible it could tip things. But, if the popular vote and the electoral vote fail to jive, like happened in 2000, it could really matter!

The Electoral Vote will be Barack Obama 319 and John McCain 219. Two states that I have in the Obama column might flip to McCain, Virginia (13) and Florida (27) bringing his total to 259, still 11 short of 270. On the other hand, Ohio (20) and North Carolina (15) could go for Obama, padding his lead. If the underlying trends are more powerful than the polls are detecting, Obama's electoral vote total may be as high as 353.

Virginia will go for Obama by a margin of 51% to 48%, delivering the state's 13 electoral votes to a Democrat for the first time since 1964. Obama will rack up huge margins in NOVA, Richmond City, Charlottesville, and in some parts of Hampton Roads. He'll also do better in many rural areas than did Kerry and Gore. The remaining 1% will be split between the minor party candidates, with Barr and Baldwin leading that bunch. Most of their votes come from McCain's hide.

The U.S. Senate race in Virginia is a done deal, the only surprise being how big is Mark Warner's win. Warner will carry every congressional district and all but a handful of deep red localities. Final result - Warner 64% (could be higher) and Gilmore 35% (or lower). End of Gilmore's political "misadventure." Possible beginning of a future president in Mark Warner.

What about the makeup of the U.S. Senate? Even if it is a so-so night for Democrats, they'll pick up seven seats in the U.S. Senate. If the wave really washes out incumbents, add two or three to that number. Can you say "FILIBUSTER PROOF." I don't think the Dems quite get that. My prediction is the new Senate will be 58-42... until they kick Lieberman out of the party. Then it is 57-42-1 or 57-43. 

In the House races in Virginia, Democrats will certainly pick up one seat in the 11th District. If voters are in an upset mood, Tom Perriello may knock off Virgil Goode... a very "good" thing. If there are very angry voters, maybe the Dems can pick up one other seat. In the 6th District, Bob Goodlatte will probably keep his seat. Sam Rasoul ran a good issues-oriented race, but Goodlatte's name recognition, PAC money, and flood of TV/radio ads over the final weeks will give him the victory.  My prediction is Goodlatte 55%, Rasoul 42%, and Allen 3%. As I predicted way back in April, other than her hometown, Allen is not a factor and her campaign a complete joke. There has been little polling on this race, so beyond the outcome, it almost impossible to predict percentages. I hope I am way off base and Rasoul pulls off an upset - he's smart, focused, and will represent the voters well... if he gets the chance.

Democrats will gain 28 seats in the House of Representatives. Again, if voters' anger is intense enough, the party of Thomas Jefferson and Andrew Jackson will pick up 35 to 40 seats.

A cheap joke

Jim Gilmore visited Kathy's Restaurant in Staunton on Saturday and spoke to 25-30 GOP loyalists, the only ones he can attract to any kind of event. Borrowing from a time honored tradition of candidates trailing in the polls, Gilmore discounted his 30 point deficit to Mark Warner by saying the only poll that counts is on November 4. The ever delusional Gilmore said, "the race is going great guns.... I feel great about this race."

A reliable source told me Gilmore tried to warm up the audience with a joke that went something like this: "Mark Warner likes his fancy dinners in expensive restaurants. I prefer cheap places."

The employees at Kathy's didn't laugh. Neither did Kathy.

Don't talk down to me...

Mark Warner and Jim Gilmore debated the economic rescue plan, earmarks, partisanship, and their respective records as governor in a televised debate in Roanoke. Gilmore, trailing by over 25% in the polls and facing a huge fundraising disadvantage took a populist stance on the bailout which had passed Congress and signed by the president earlier in the day. Gilmore was also testy and attacking Warner at every opportunity.

Warner, who is generally considered one of Virginia's most successful modern governors, would have none of it. He reminded viewers of the financial mess that Gilmore left the state in when leaving office. Gilmore fired back, "I object to that characterization...." 

Later, when Gilmore's answers showed a lack of knowledge about the current financial mess, Warner said, "I don't know if Governor Gilmore understands."

Firing back, Gilmore almost shouted, "Don't talk down to me..."

It was inevitable that Gilmore would take a slash and burn approach in the only televised debate between the candidates. With Warner picking up endorsements from Republicans and apparently getting support from almost 25% of GOP voters, Gilmore had no options. He had to shake up the Republican base to generate enthusiasm and some money for his fumbling campaign.

Did the debate do what Gilmore wanted and needed. Not in a country mile. Warner came across as informed and reasonable and as a centrist who will find bipartisan ways to solve problems. Gilmore seemed desperate and mean spirited (judging from his time as governor, this is a character trait). He may have fired up his base to send donations, but he probably alienated independents and moderate Republicans.

The race may tighten over the next month, but Warner will have an easy double digit win on November 4. It will be a landslide. Hopefully, Warner's long coattails will translate into votes for Barack Obama, Sam Rasoul and other Democratic congressional candidates.

More on the debate at The Roanoke Times.

Let's Debate

Looks like it is debate season in the 6th District!

Mark Warner and Jim Gilmore debate tonight, Friday, Oct. 3 at 7PM in Roanoke. It will be televised statewide including several stations in the Shenandoah Valley.

Also there now appear to be two debates scheduled for the 6th District Congressional candidates. Check them out. Apparently, the one at William Byrd will not be televised or on radio.

Monday, October 6 at 7PM at William Byrd HS in Roanoke.

Thursday, October 9 at 10AM Holiday Inn in Harrisonburg; broadcast on WSVA 550.

How Green Is My Valley?

Anne Nielson of the Climate Action Alliance of the Valley writes a thoughtful column, Judge Candidates' Environmental Stances, in today's Daily News-Record. If environmental issues matter to you (shouldn't they matter to all of us?) Ms. Nielson's observations deserve our attention. A few tidbits:

• John McCain formerly supported attempts to cap greenhouse emissions and believes climate change is caused by human activity, but he hasn't mentioned it since winning the nomination (right shift?). However, his running mate said, "...a changing environment will affect Alaska more than any other, I'm not one who would attribute it to being man-made."
• Jim Gilmore's stance on climate change is unknown, he doesn't talk about it.
• Barack Obama and Mark Warner support cap-and-trade proposals to limit carbon emissions. In 1986 Joe Biden offered the first bill to limit global warming pollutants.
• Sam Rasoul "calls on Americans to rally to a national effort to meet ... environmental, security, and employment problems."
• Bob Goodlatte supported an amendment to K-12 curriculum include "diversity of scientific viewpoints" on human impact on climate change and encourages more coal-fired power plants.
• Janice Lee Allen's views are unknown except for a vague statement on her website about "creation of a universal organization to monitor pollutants."

There are differences, very real differences, between the candidates. Read Nielson's commentary for more info. Research the candidates' positions. This fowl doesn't want our chicks' futures to be foul. Vote Green.

Big Bird vs Dumb Cluck

Mark Warner and Jim Gilmore debated in front of the Fairfax Chamber of Commerce yesterday. With Warner's huge lead in the polls it was expected that Gilmore would try to land a few punches, maybe even a haymaker. Not even close!

Right off the batt, the candidates were asked about the breaking financial crisis. Warner placed the blame squarely on Washington, saying the Bush administration and various regulatory agencies has been "asleep at the switch" over the past six to eight years. Warner suggested a single agency would be better than a "mishmash" of agencies with sometimes conflicting goals and powers.

Gilmore flipped flopped as fast as John McCain has since declaring the economy "fundamentally sound" earlier this week. Gilmore, has long advocated privatization and less regulation, came out for more oversight of the mortgage industry. He missed with his jab when repeating the tired old GOP mantra about Barack Obama raising taxes (yes, you should be worried about paying your fair share if you make more than $250,000 a year).

The candidate's sparred over off-shore oil and other issues, but in the end, Mark Warner emerged the winner as Gilmore never came close to landing a punch. As one of the most successful modern Virginia governors, Warner is known as a straight talking, pragmatic political leader who solves problems across party lines. He has nearly 100% Democratic support and is attracting the vast majority of independents and many Republicans.

On the other hand, Gilmore's tenure as governor was a disaster as he ran the state budget into the ground. His politics of division and fear got him elected once, but won't again. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. Virginians won't get fooled again.

It's debatable

Mark Warner and Jim Gilmore have agreed to a one-hour televised debate on October 3 at 7:00 PM. Roanoke TV station WSLS (Ch. 10) will make the feed available statewide. This will be the third debate between the two, but the first to be televised across the commonwealth. The moderator and format of the debate are still being worked out.

So, now that the Senate candidates have agreed to a debate, how about you, Mr. Goodlatte? Don't you believe the voters of the 6th District deserve the same chance to hear from you and Sam Rasoul? The opportunity to compare your stands? The chance to see you side-by-side and compare your demeanor, your knowledge, and if you will give straight forward answers to difficult questions?

You've been stonewalling, Bob. Trying to run out the election clock. Mr. Rasoul has proposed a series of six debates for the 6th District. It is time for you to step up and meet your opponent and the people of this great district.

Contact Bob. Tell him to agree to no fewer than three debates, with one in each region of the district.

Labor Day - Democratic style

Buena Vista Blue is the way I'd describe the traditional Labor Day parade in the small 6th District city. Lots of balloons and signs for Barack Obama, Mark Warner, and Sam Rasoul. Dozens of Democrats joining the parade. Mark Warner and Sam Rasoul zig zagging the street, shaking hands, greeting voters. Great speeches by those candidates plus our 2009 candidates Creigh Deeds and Brian Moran.

A good time was had by all - except for maybe some Republicans, especially lonely Jim.

A couple of great pics from the parade and the start of fall campaign to turn Virginia Blue.

Cobalt6 has more pics and commentary.

Debatable

Mark Warner has declined an invitation from the League of Women Voters to debate his opponent, Jim Gilmore. The Warner campaign said it could not commit to a specific date by the League's deadline. 

Gilmore and his supporters are accusing Warner of ducking him and the issues. "What is Mark Warner hiding?" asked Gilmore.

While this debate was to have been televised statewide, Mark Warner is hardly "hiding." He previously debated Gilmore at an event sponsored by the Virginia Bar Association and both candidates have committed to a September 18 debate hosted by the Fairfax Chamber of Commerce. There are also several events at which the candidates will jointly appear, beginning this weekend with the Labor Day parade and speeches in Buena Vista.

Hopefully, the senatorial candidates can agree to one debate that will be televised statewide. The voters and the commonwealth demand it.

Likewise, Bob Goodlatte should agree to debate challenger Sam Rasoul - hopefully several times, with at least one televised in major markets in the 6th District. Should Janice Lee Allen be included? Only if she can demonstrate sufficient support, at least 10%, in a reputable and independent public opinion poll.

At this moment in our history . . .

Mark Warner rocked the Democratic National Convention and the "Warner Watch Party" I attended. As Warner took the podium the 25 or so folks who had been enjoying friends and food became quiet, intently watching and listening to our former governor and next senator bring Virginia values to the national stage.

Warner had many great lines, but his closing quote from Virginian and founder of the Democratic Party, Thomas Jefferson, captured the essence of this historic turning point in American history. Sorry, I won't cite the quote here. You'll have to watch Warner's great speech to hear, in context, Jefferson's wisdom for yesterday, today, and tomorrow.

Goin' for the grits

Barack Obama and Mark Warner will campaign together in Martinsville. The invitation-only town hall meeting will focus on trade policy and jobs in a region hammered by job losses due to plant closings and moving overseas. The audience will include families and workers impacted by the failures of Bush administration trade policies. Later in the day Obama will join Senator Jim Webb in Lynchburg.

At a hastily called press event by the McCain campaign, retiring Representative Tom Davis, a northern Virginia Republican, bashed Obama for pandering to a community with high unemployment. Davis said Obama lacked the "courage" to come to Fairfax with his trade message. Scratching in the litter, trying to dig up something that sticks - Davis is practicing the politics of division of NOVA versus the Southside region. Glad this bird is flying at the end of this term.

Obama's stops in Virginia mirror Mark Warner's rural strategy that won him the statehouse and will send him to the U.S. Senate. To carry Virginia, a Democrat must do well in regions like the Southide, the Southwest, and the Shenandoah Valley - areas that for too long have been taken for granted by Republicans (who then ignored them once in office) and thought by Democrats as not winnable. By going to Martinsville (can you say NASCAR?) and Lynchburg (ground zero of the Bible belt) Obama is signaling that every Virginia vote counts and that the commonwealth will be a battleground.

I don't read too much in the fact that Governor Tim Kaine will not be joining Obama at these stops. The governor has plenty to deal with on the state budget that is turning red as the national economy continues to falter. A few days ago CCC posted that Kaine's VP star was fading. Some pundits think these Virginia campaign stops signal Kaine is the guy. Not that the budget woes disqualify Kaine, but they have already prompted partisan attacks that may be a distraction. For the reasons expressed earlier, I still think Senator Joe Biden will be crowing in Denver. We'll know soon!

There's something going on here . . .

Augusta, Staunton, and Waynesboro Democrats Painted the Valley Blue last night at a huge event at the Frontier Culture Museum. As he began speaking, Senator Creigh Deeds exclaimed, "There's something going on here . . ." then went on to explain this was the largest gathering of Democrats in the Augusta County area since he's been in office. Deeds, from Bath County, previously represented the western part of Augusta County in the House of Delegates and is a candidate for governor in 2009. As the News Virginian and The News Leader reported, about 500 area Democrats joined to make a statement - we are in the Valley and we are here to stay.

Other speakers included congressional candidate Sam Rasoul, who drove home the point that true change means getting the special interests out of Washington. Governor Mark Warner addressed the crowd by telephone as he was hobbled by a basketball injury and ordered off his feet for a few days. Warner joked that the doc told him a 53 year old should give up hoops.

Below are a few pictures, with comments, from Paint the Valley Blue. More pics are found at The News Leader's photo gallery. Our friends at Cobalt6 have even more.

Sam Rasoul, candidate for the House of Representatives, tells supporters he plans to change Congress so it works for the people rather than the special interests.

Levar Stoney, executive director of the Democratic Party of Virginia, took some ribbing for wearing a red shirt to Paint the Valley Blue. He commented to one Democrat, that he wore it to sneak in the GOP leaning Valley, but could see from the numbers of enthusiastic Democrats that it wasn't necessary. Stoney is a JMU graduate and was elected twice as student body president.

Senator Creigh Deeds fires up the crowd to get involved in the November elections. 

The entrance to the Frontier Culture Museum was filled with campaign signs. Many in attendance took signs to place at their homes at the end of the evening.

The decorations were stunning.

As the pavilion began filling and people were finding seats, it became apparent that the color of the evening was blue. A tourist at the museum approached the entrance table saying she wanted to buy some Barack Obama buttons (they are pretty scarce). The ticket takers scrambled to find four and the grateful tourist handed them a check for $400 and wished our campaign in the Valley well. Wow!

Sam Rasoul chats with supporters before the great beef BBQ, baked beans, cole slaw, and all the other fixin's dinner.

Senator Frank Nolen listens intently to the speakers. Nolen held the Augusta Committee together during the lean years and is still instrumental in energizing the party faithful. He later conducted an auction to benefit the local committees.

A Virginia VeepStakes - Nope!

Barack Obama has been in Hawaii for a little R&R and a lot of preparing for the convention and the selection of the VP. A couple of Virginians are figuring prominently in those plans.

Mark Warner will be the keynote speaker. A great opportunity for Governor Warner to showcase himself nationally and to promote the kind of centrist, pragmatic approach that made him a successful governor and that will elect him to the U.S. Senate by a landslide. Yes, it will be a 15-20 percentage point win! Or more.

The selection of Warner to deliver the keynote address is probably a signal that Governor Tim Kaine's chances to be selected VP are quickly dimming. It seems pretty unlikely that two Virginian governors would figure so prominently at the Democratic Convention. The grist mill says Kaine has seemed a little glum in the last few days. Cluck.

While Kaine certainly remains in the very short list of potential Obama running mates, two senators are, I believe, more likely choices - Evan Bayh and Joe Biden.

Senator Bayh campaigned with Obama last week and as a former Clinton supporter might bring some of her supporters on board. He's a solid choice from the heartland and probably a safe choice for the ticket. But, is he a compelling choice? And, with a Republican governor poised to appoint a replacement, the political calculus of the U.S. Senate may weigh more heavily on the decision.

With the Russian invasion of Georgia and international issues, at least for now trumping the economy, Senator Biden's expertise in foreign and military policy might be much more appealing to Obama. Biden is a bit of a loose cannon and has been known to let his mouth get him in political trouble, but there is little doubt he is one of the finest minds on international issues, connecting the dots, and seeing the big picture. Senator Biden has been pretty quiet recently - not wanting to insert foot? Another plus for Biden is the fact that Delaware's governor is a Democrat.

This bird doesn't gamble, but if I did I'd be betting on Joe Biden as Barack Obama's running mate. Of course, I like my crow with Tabasco sauce.

Corn on the cob

Sweet corn is showing up at farmer's markets and farm stands. Nice time of the year.

The "porn trial" started in Staunton today - jury selection was the main thing on the court's docket today. By lunch break three jurors - one man and two women - had been selected. Since this is a misdemeanor trial, seven jurors are needed. Guess they'll get into opening statements and calling witnesses tomorrow, if jury selection concludes today.

•••

A group called Virginia Veterans for Obama has a online petition - Congressman Bob Goodlatte Does Not Support Our Veterans. Recently the congressman sent a mailing falsely claiming he had supported Senator Jim Webb's G.I. Bill:

“Recently, the Congress passed, with my support, important legislation that expands the education benefits for our returning service members.”

Mr. Goodlatte actually opposed the bill and only voted for it to save face after the provisions were included in war funding legislation. If you believe that Mr. Goodlatte should fess up to false statements made during his reelection campaign, sign the petition.

••••

Flowers bloom in the spring, campaign signs in the fall. This year they've been popping up earlier than in some elections as more and more are appearing well before the traditional Labor Day campaign kick-off. Signs don't vote or win elections, but they can give a sense party activism and, if you know whose yard it is, a notion of where support of coming from.

Because he spent a year running for the Democratic nomination, Sam Rasoul's signs have been spotted around the district for months. They even caused a bit of a stir in Botetourt County back in April. In July, Goodlatte signs started appearing, first in the southern end of the district and later in the more northern areas. A big Goodlatte sign on church property caused a controversy and was removed. Bet there are more instances of this around the district. Although I've passed through her hometown of Bridgewater several times recently, I've only spotted one Janice Lee Allen sign, which was actually on Rt. 11 near Verona. Her campaign may have gone mort. 

Other than on properties of a few well known fanatical GOPites, I have yet to see a Gilmore sign legally in a yard - but many have been planted in VDOT right-of-ways. On the other hand, I've counted a fair number of Mark Warner signs, some at homes where Democratic signs are not the norm.

Barack Obama signs are scarce as hen's teeth at the area headquarters. Rumor is that the campaign is waiting on a VP name before printing new signs and bumper stickers. Still, you can spot them throughout Rockingham and Augusta counties. There have been a few letters to the editor in the DNR complaining of stolen Obama signs. A few McCain signs are beginning to appear - most clustered with other Republican signs.