Predictions

The national presidential popular vote (which doesn't matter except pride and in creating the "mandate") will be Obama 52%, McCain 47%, with 1% split between various minor party candidates. Those candidates aren't really important except in a handful of very close states where it is possible it could tip things. But, if the popular vote and the electoral vote fail to jive, like happened in 2000, it could really matter!

The Electoral Vote will be Barack Obama 319 and John McCain 219. Two states that I have in the Obama column might flip to McCain, Virginia (13) and Florida (27) bringing his total to 259, still 11 short of 270. On the other hand, Ohio (20) and North Carolina (15) could go for Obama, padding his lead. If the underlying trends are more powerful than the polls are detecting, Obama's electoral vote total may be as high as 353.

Virginia will go for Obama by a margin of 51% to 48%, delivering the state's 13 electoral votes to a Democrat for the first time since 1964. Obama will rack up huge margins in NOVA, Richmond City, Charlottesville, and in some parts of Hampton Roads. He'll also do better in many rural areas than did Kerry and Gore. The remaining 1% will be split between the minor party candidates, with Barr and Baldwin leading that bunch. Most of their votes come from McCain's hide.

The U.S. Senate race in Virginia is a done deal, the only surprise being how big is Mark Warner's win. Warner will carry every congressional district and all but a handful of deep red localities. Final result - Warner 64% (could be higher) and Gilmore 35% (or lower). End of Gilmore's political "misadventure." Possible beginning of a future president in Mark Warner.

What about the makeup of the U.S. Senate? Even if it is a so-so night for Democrats, they'll pick up seven seats in the U.S. Senate. If the wave really washes out incumbents, add two or three to that number. Can you say "FILIBUSTER PROOF." I don't think the Dems quite get that. My prediction is the new Senate will be 58-42... until they kick Lieberman out of the party. Then it is 57-42-1 or 57-43. 

In the House races in Virginia, Democrats will certainly pick up one seat in the 11th District. If voters are in an upset mood, Tom Perriello may knock off Virgil Goode... a very "good" thing. If there are very angry voters, maybe the Dems can pick up one other seat. In the 6th District, Bob Goodlatte will probably keep his seat. Sam Rasoul ran a good issues-oriented race, but Goodlatte's name recognition, PAC money, and flood of TV/radio ads over the final weeks will give him the victory.  My prediction is Goodlatte 55%, Rasoul 42%, and Allen 3%. As I predicted way back in April, other than her hometown, Allen is not a factor and her campaign a complete joke. There has been little polling on this race, so beyond the outcome, it almost impossible to predict percentages. I hope I am way off base and Rasoul pulls off an upset - he's smart, focused, and will represent the voters well... if he gets the chance.

Democrats will gain 28 seats in the House of Representatives. Again, if voters' anger is intense enough, the party of Thomas Jefferson and Andrew Jackson will pick up 35 to 40 seats.

We need leadership

"What we need to be looking for is leaders."

                                          ~Sam Rasoul

Yesterday, the 6th District candidates for House of Representatives debated in front of a live audience at Holiday Inn in Harrisonburg. Although not televised, the debate was broadcast on WSVA radio. Below is the opening question as posted on NBC29. You can find other pop up videos of parts of the debate here.

 

From the beginning of the discussion the incumbent, Bob Goodlatte was on the defensive. With public approval ratings of Congress hovering about 15% and the economy tanking, Goodlatte struggled for answers by falling back on the old talking points from the past. Both the Democrat, Sam Rasoul, and a little known independent, Janice Lee Allen, pummeled Goodlatte for lack of leadership and being part of the problem in Washington.

Goodlatte's face visibly reddened when he was reminded of his promise to step aside after six terms. He sort of stammered about believing in term limits but said when no amendment was put in the Constitution he as just doing the same as others in Congress. Excuse me, congressman, I don't recall your pledge, your moral obligation, being you'd only limit the number of terms if there was a constitutional amendment binding everyone. No, you made this a personal promise that you've now broken several times. Overheard in the audience - "your honor, I'm not guilty of speeding because everyone else does it." Mr. Goodlatte, we hold our elected representatives to a higher standard.

Goodlatte and Rasoul sharply differed on health insurance reform. Rasoul supports a federally supported health system of private health insurance. Goodlatte tried to defend himself by saying he wanted to assure accessibility for those who can't afford it - so tell us again, why did you vote against the children's health insurance program earlier this year?

A few impressions (some overheard):

Sam Rasoul is smart and has the potential for leadership in Congress. He may not have all the answers, but he will seek out pragmatic solutions to problems facing the American people. And he will honor his promise to step down after five terms.

Bob Goodlatte seems tired and locked in by his blind allegiance to the failed Bush policies and the tired GOP mantra. One person commented that he looked worn down and ready to retire from public life. It was clear to many why he's resisted debates, especially televised ones.

Janice Lee Allen. Hum. What to say? Flaky. Vague. Half-baked ideas. Don't know why she is running. Don't think she does either.

Links to news coverage of the debate:

• Daily News-Record
• NBC29
• Augusta Free Press
• The News Leader

How Green Is My Valley?

Anne Nielson of the Climate Action Alliance of the Valley writes a thoughtful column, Judge Candidates' Environmental Stances, in today's Daily News-Record. If environmental issues matter to you (shouldn't they matter to all of us?) Ms. Nielson's observations deserve our attention. A few tidbits:

• John McCain formerly supported attempts to cap greenhouse emissions and believes climate change is caused by human activity, but he hasn't mentioned it since winning the nomination (right shift?). However, his running mate said, "...a changing environment will affect Alaska more than any other, I'm not one who would attribute it to being man-made."
• Jim Gilmore's stance on climate change is unknown, he doesn't talk about it.
• Barack Obama and Mark Warner support cap-and-trade proposals to limit carbon emissions. In 1986 Joe Biden offered the first bill to limit global warming pollutants.
• Sam Rasoul "calls on Americans to rally to a national effort to meet ... environmental, security, and employment problems."
• Bob Goodlatte supported an amendment to K-12 curriculum include "diversity of scientific viewpoints" on human impact on climate change and encourages more coal-fired power plants.
• Janice Lee Allen's views are unknown except for a vague statement on her website about "creation of a universal organization to monitor pollutants."

There are differences, very real differences, between the candidates. Read Nielson's commentary for more info. Research the candidates' positions. This fowl doesn't want our chicks' futures to be foul. Vote Green.

Let the cackling begin

Finally, Bob Goodlatte has agreed to a debate (of sorts) with Sam Rasoul. Hopefully, you'll be able to catch it on WSVA 550 AM at 10:00 AM on October 9. WSVA has a big coverage area, so you should pick it up throughout the northern part of the valley.

At this point, it looks like it will be a radio event (kudos to WSVA) but I am hopeful that a TV debate in front of a live audience is in the future. Nothing quite like voters being able to see the candidates and judge their demeanor as well as their words.

Janice Lee Allen will apparently be included in the WSVA debate, but I'm not really sure why. Her campaign has generated little interest and fewer ideas. Her signs are mostly on VDOT rights-of-way rather than placed by permission on private property.

Green eggs and ham

Who is the Independent Green Party of Virginia? Even after knowing, I'm not sure I know.

Also known as the Indy Green Party, it broke away from the Green Party in 2003. In 2008 they became loosely affiliated with the Independence Party of America. Their key issue seems to be fiscal conservatism (I wonder how they are reacting to today's socialization of the debt of big companies) and rail. They call themselves a "values conservative party" with the slogan "Fiscally Conservative, Socially Responsible" and "More Trains, Less Traffic." They also advocate "more candidates, less apathy" which apparently means they'll work with almost any minor party and independent candidates

It seems their guiding light is Glenda Gail "for rail" Parker, their 2008 nominee for U.S. Senate. Ms. Parker's central issue (one I might find some agreement with) is increasing rail opportunities for moving people and goods. 

The Indy Greens nominated (kind of a loose term because they'll apparently "nominate" about anyone opposed to one of the major parties) a number of candidates for the House of Delegates. Most received very few votes although one or two topped 30%. An Indy Green endorsed, not nominated, candidate for the Loudoun Co. Board of Supervisors won in 2007.

In 2008, the Virginia Indy Greens launched a petition drive to put Michael Bloomberg on the ballot for president (Ron Paul was VP). They got more signatures than needed but Bloomberg declared he was not a candidate. They flirted with the idea of nominating T. Boone Pickens as a way to promote his wind power/natural gas energy plan (which has some interesting aspects). When Pickens shunned them, the party turned to Chuck Baldwin of the Constitution Party as their nominee.

The Virginia Indy Greens have endorsed five candidates for House of Representatives, including Janice Lee Allen in the 6th district. As noted above, this probably means little since the Indy Greens apparently endorse almost any minor party or independent candidate who talks about fiscal conservatism. Allen is highlighted on the Indy Green website, but I didn't see any indication that she claims them on hers.

On a side note, a veteran Shenandoah Valley political reported told this old bird that talking to Ms. Allen is a frustrating hoot. She apparently jumps around with little focus, talking about an issue and shifting suddenly into some religious jargon, or relating it to something in her past. This particular reporter would just as soon not interview her again. Good luck!

Putting pressure on the old bird

Sam Rasoul is keeping up the pressure on Bob Goodlatte to participate in debates. Rasoul has proposed six debates with two in each of the major regions of the sprawling 6th District. Goodlatte has not agreed to any debates, but his spokesman says he hasn't ruled it out.

As expected, Goodlatte is blaming the congressional schedule for making it hard to agree on debate dates. But, Goodlatte has attended a convention watch party and other events although Congress has yet to recess. Truth is, Goodlatte doesn't want to debate and he'll stall, delay, explain, and complain for as long as he can - at this point he's running the clock out. Goodlatte fears questions about how little he's achieved, his blind partisanship that has him joined at the brain with George Bush, and his broken promise.

To her credit, Janice Lee Allen is calling on Goodlatte to debate. But, with her polling about 3%, her inclusion in a debate would be, at best, a distraction that would take time away from the incumbent and Rasoul - the only individuals with a shot to win. Before getting her own podium, she should demonstrate double digit strength in an independent poll. Ms. Allen got a little free PR on NBC29 tonight. While demonstrating her ability to push in the stakes of a yard sign, she accused Rasoul of being a big taxer (huh? has she even listened to him?), and then out of the blue said "someday there will be no food on the table . . ." (Where did that come from?).

Keep up the pressure Rasoul. The voters deserve to hear the leading candidates in this race. Our democracy demands it!

Debatable

Mark Warner has declined an invitation from the League of Women Voters to debate his opponent, Jim Gilmore. The Warner campaign said it could not commit to a specific date by the League's deadline. 

Gilmore and his supporters are accusing Warner of ducking him and the issues. "What is Mark Warner hiding?" asked Gilmore.

While this debate was to have been televised statewide, Mark Warner is hardly "hiding." He previously debated Gilmore at an event sponsored by the Virginia Bar Association and both candidates have committed to a September 18 debate hosted by the Fairfax Chamber of Commerce. There are also several events at which the candidates will jointly appear, beginning this weekend with the Labor Day parade and speeches in Buena Vista.

Hopefully, the senatorial candidates can agree to one debate that will be televised statewide. The voters and the commonwealth demand it.

Likewise, Bob Goodlatte should agree to debate challenger Sam Rasoul - hopefully several times, with at least one televised in major markets in the 6th District. Should Janice Lee Allen be included? Only if she can demonstrate sufficient support, at least 10%, in a reputable and independent public opinion poll.

Polling grist

A WDBJ poll shows the incumbent, Bob Goodlatte, with a large lead over challenger Sam Rasoul in the race for the 6th Congressional District. In the poll conducted by Survey USA of 592 likely voters (MOE ±4%), Goodlate has 59% to Rasoul's 30%. Seven percent are undecided and Janice Lee Allen barely registers at 3%.

Goodlatte, who is seeking his ninth term (he broke his promise to step down after six), has a huge name recognition advantage over Rasoul, which probably accounts for his lead with about 100 days left in the campaign. Rasoul has been conducting a grassroots voter contact campaign to counteract that advantage. While I wouldn't characterize Valley Republicans as "worried," they have certainly taken notice of Rasoul's aggressive campaign and the attention he's been getting. Goodlatte is having to get out and work like he hasn't in a long, long time.

The numbers will tighten after Labor Day when voters pay more attention to the congressional races which often gets lost in the media coverage of the presidential and senatorial contests.

As CCC predicted in earlier posts, Janice Lee Allen is barely a blip on the radar screen. Three percent may be her high point.

Any word of possible debates between Goodlatte and Rasoul? Last week's 5th District debate between Virgil Goode and Tom Periello is getting attention - a good thing for voters and our democracy. Hope to see something similar here in the 6th District.

Chicken Little

On July 4 Cliff Garstang from Cobalt6 and an occasional poster here, wrote a letter to the editor of The News Leader in which he advocated moving beyond oil to cleaner and renewable alternate sources. Appropriate that it was published on Independence Day because that is what we are really talking about here - independence from the stranglehold of other nations, from a proven source of pollution and greenhouse gases, and from a drain on family budgets and the national economy alike.

A couple of letter writers responded with the off-repeated right wing mantra of drill more and drill now. The most recent writer by the name of Shawn Allen of Harrisonburg kind of sounded like Chicken Little. He called for drilling in ANWAR and off-shore using the opportunity to endorse Janice Lee Allen (is Shawn family?) for Congress writing that she'd bring "vision and creativity." Since when does more of the same constitute "vision and creativity?" Thinking in the past rather than the future is not the way to solve problems. 

The U.S. is kind of like a junkie with an oil needle deep in a vein. More drilling just keeps up the drip, drip, drip of addiction. Like the old Fram commercial, "you can pay me now, or pay me later." If you've been a reader of CCC you've seen several posts about wind power, especially as it relates to potential wind farms in Highland County and Shenandoah County. While wind turbines present some challenges in some locations, it represents a great opportunity for clean and renewable energy. 

You may have seen recent TV ads by well-known oil man and corporate raider T. Boone Pickens promoting ideas to wean us off petroleum. Mr. Pickens says:

"this is one emergency we can't drill our way out of. But if we create a new renewable energy network, we can break our addiction to foreign oil."

Pickins' believes the estimates of off-shore oil are wildly overestimated. That belief is supported by others and illustrated by the slow pace of the oil industry to explore for oil/gas in 8.3 million acres off the Florida coast that was opened up  in 2006. Guess the Allens missed that one. Cluck!

Pickens' plan calls a dramatic increase in wind and solar to generate electricity. That would free up natural gas that is currently used for electric generation to be converted to compressed natural gas (CNG) to power vehicles. He believes we might replace up to 1/3 of our fleet with CNG powered cars. The technology exists with costs comparable to current gasoline vehicles.

The Pickens' plan has attracted the attention of Carl Pope of the Sierra Club. Now Mr. Pickens and Mr. Pope aren't exactly birds of a feather, but the plan's vision and creativity has them on common ground. Pope notes a government mandate to require distribution of CNG would be necessary to assure nationwide availability (the oil industry would likely resist). Manufacturers would have to make the cars (which having fuel stations available will encourage) and consumers will have to buy the CNG cars or purchase low-cost conversion kits. Perhaps it would be sound policy for some government rebates to help ease the conversion. If we can do it for digital TV we can certainly do it for our nation's energy security.

Perhaps the Pickens' plan has some flaws and I'm sure he's looking to make a profit on his huge wind farm in Texas. There is nothing incompatible about going green and earning profits. But, it represents the kind of original thinking and consensus building necessary to move the United States into a new era of energy independence. As Carl Pope said, 

"To put it plainly, T. Boone Pickens is out to save America."

POLITICAL LEADERSHIP NEEDED: more vision and creativity and less "the sky is falling."

Just added this 11 minute YouTube clip: T. Boone Pickens explains the problem and his plan.

Scrambled Eggs

A few interesting political odds and ends today -

Janice Lee Allen has, according to the Daily News-Record, gotten the 1,000 signatures and has been approved by the State Board of Elections to be on the November ballot. I'm sure she's clucking about her success! But, getting on the ballot is the easy part.

According to the grist mill, Allen has alienated 6th District Democrats by flirting with them over a possible run and then virtually dropping off the map. After months of silence she announced she'd run as an independent, implying in an email that David Layman had encouraged her do so. Anybody who ever knew David is keenly aware that he would never have encouraged anyone to run for anything unless he/she was a Democrat. So, it is unlikely Allen will find any support among Democrats who recently nominated Sam Rasoul who has already fired up the activist base of the party. According to releases, Sam will be campaigning in Staunton this afternoon and again on June 7.

CCC previously commented on Allen in "New Kid in the Coop" and the analysis stands today. Beyond her hometown of Bridgewater and the Daily News-Record, she'll get scant attention. Unless she has a sugar daddy, fundraising will be tough. My six months out prediction is 3-4%.

Chris Graham, the new chair of the Waynesboro Democratic Committee, has wasted little in setting up a website to keep local Democrats informed. Most local committee websites get little traffic as they tend to simply be online bulletin boards of coming events and rarely take edgy positions. With his background at the Augusta Free Press, Chris will likely create a lively place for online Democrats to meet. Check out the committee's new email address and Waynesboro Democrats Facebook page.

All the pecking for now.